It’s a special edition of the Energy Gang this week. New York University’s 2040 Now event is an initiative focused on addressing the challenges posed by climate change, and this week the Energy Gang joined in. As part of the week of exercises, talks, exhibitions and discussions, regular Energy Gang member Amy Myers-Jaffe led a workshop on building energy transition scenarios, looking for ways to deepen our understanding of the present and strengthen our predictions about the future. The Energy Gang was there to record live in the Kimmel Center for University Life at NYU. 

Scenario analysis is particularly useful for analyzing the energy transition, because its trajectory is still uncertain, and a large number of variables can influence outcomes. Some of the most important of those variables are qualitative rather than quantitative, making them hard to analyze in a computer simulation such as an energy systems model. Thinking about a wide range of scenarios is a vital tool for testing assumptions and highlighting alternative possibilities. 

Amy and host Ed Crooks were joined by Energy Gang regular Robbie Orvis, Senior Director of Modelling and Analysis at the think-tank Energy Innovation, and by Erin Coughlan de Perez, Dignitas Associate Professor at Tufts University.

With contributions from NYU professors, students and invited guests, they discussed the aspects of climate, policy, technology and finance that will shape our energy system and climate over the decades to come. And they ask the question: when we try to predict the future of energy, what are we missing?

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Alternative sources of power are moving into the spotlight.

As the share of dispatchable power in our electricity system declines, with coal-fired plants giving way to variable wind and solar, maintaining reliable supplies to keep the lights on becomes more complex. Investment in wind and solar is still vital for making progress towards net zero emissions, but other sources of low-carbon power are also moving into the spotlight. Those can include nuclear and hydrogen generation, as well as wave and tidal power, but there’s another source of renewable energy that’s been attracting a lot of attention recently: geothermal.   

Today geothermal accounts for just 0.5% of renewables-based capacity for electricity generation globally, but some think it could play a much bigger role in the future. In the past few years there has been growing interest in geothermal energy, driven by some exciting innovations. Quaise Energy, for example, is developing a millimeter wave drill that they say could enable them to deliver energy at $40 per MWh. Fervo is a startup working on horizontal drilling for geothermal, enabling them to reach more areas and lowering surface footprints.   

On the Energy Gang this week, Ed Crooks is joined by Dr. Melissa Lott, the Director of Research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and by Nneka Kibuule, who is a Principal at Aligned Climate Capital and co-founder of GreenTech Noir. They discuss the potential of geothermal as an energy source, and the important questions over its environmental impact. What are the trade-offs when we develop new sources of low-carbon energy that could help tackle climate change, but create local impacts on sensitive ecosystems?

There’s a $100 million plan to turn apartments in New York City into Virtual Power Plants, or VPPs. There are now hundreds of VPP projects across the US and Canada, with New York and California being the biggest states. But what exactly are they, and how do they work? In New York City, the plan is to control air-conditioning units in real-time to reduce electricity demand, relieving stress on the grid and helping to cut emissions. Nneka Kibuule explains how Aligned Climate Capital has invested in several businesses developing technologies for VPPs, making it possible to turn homes and businesses into a collective energy resource for utilities and the grid.   

Finally, the focus on ESG investing continues. When investors and companies look at ESG scores and ratings, are they getting too hung up on the numbers and not paying enough attention to all the other important factors that are more difficult to measure?

Subscribe to the show so you don’t miss an episode and follow us on Twitter, we’re @theenergygang  

The Energy Gang is brought to you by Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati—the premier legal services provider to technology, life sciences, and clean energy enterprises. Wilson Sonsini has built a leading energy and climate solutions practice and its team is dedicated to a single goal: advancing what’s next in the energy industry.    

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It has been a turbulent month in the financial sector, which could have big implications for the world of energy. Mobilising capital is vital for achieving international goals to curb greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of global warming. As the global banking system shudders from the blow of Silicon Valley Bank collapsing, is long-term climate investment being pushed further to the fringes of the agenda? 

The latest Assessment Report from the IPCC has delivered what’s been called a “final warning” on limiting global warming to 1 .5 degrees C, saying we are on course for about 3.2 degrees C of warming by the end of the century. The report, which aims to bring together and summarise the state of the world’s scientific knowledge on climate change, warns that flows of investment, especially to developing countries, “fall short of the levels needed for adaptation and to achieve mitigation goals across all sectors and regions.” 

As we learn more about the climate crisis, are we heading for another financial crisis, too? Clean energy share prices have been falling on concerns that the sector will be hit by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Meanwhile, President Biden has used his first veto to protect a government regulation that seeks to encourage the use of ESG (environmental, social and governance) factors in investment decision. The Republicans are leading the charge against ESG investing, arguing that “woke Wall Street” is putting investors’ money at risk. 

On the show today: Ed Crooks is joined by Dr Melissa Lott from Columbia University, and Shanu Mathew of Lazard Asset Management, to analyse the financial storm we’ve seen brewing in the past few weeks. What exactly has been going on in the banking system? What are the implications for clean energy as the economic clouds are gathering? Rising interest rates are a big contributor to pressure on the banking system, and also have implications for renewables. 

The gang then get on to the ESG backlash: is it real, and what does it mean for investors and for clean energy companies that need capital? Finally, they review the IPCC report: although the problems it sets out look dire, there are solutions, and Melissa and Shanu have some ideas for how to make them happen.

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Will permitting reforms make it easier to build infrastructure projects?

A group called the REPEAT Project at Princeton University calculated last year that to unlock the full emissions reduction potential of the Inflation Reduction Act, the US needed to increase its total high-voltage transmission capacity by about 2.3% a year. That is more than double the pace achieved over the past decade. In Washington, reforms that could make it easier to build all kinds of energy infrastructure, including the grid connections vitally needed for wind, solar and storage, are back on the agenda. Attempts to build bipartisan support for reform in the last Congress failed, but with Republicans, who have control of the House of Representatives, now launching a plan of their own, a window for bipartisan agreement on permitting reform may be opening. Are these the steps needed that will unlock all the investment in renewable energy projects that the US needs?   

Also on the show: the impact on energy markets from the war in Ukraine seems to be dissipating, but the concerns around energy security remain as strong as ever. Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of NATO, said this recently: “Not so long ago, many argued that importing Russian gas was purely an economic issue. It is not. It is a political issue. It is about our security. Because Europe’s dependency on Russian gas made us vulnerable. So, we should not make the same mistakes with China and other authoritarian regimes.” What lessons have we learned following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? How concerned should we be about excessive reliance on China for low-carbon technologies?  

Ed Crooks is joined by Dr. Melissa Lott, Director of Research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, at Notre Dame University, to unpack these topics. They also assess the latest innovations in battery chemistry. The availability of critical minerals including lithium, nickel and cobalt for batteries has long been an area for concern. But technological breakthroughs mean that batteries without nickel or cobalt are now a highly competitive option for electric vehicles. And meanwhile batteries without lithium are starting to emerge as viable possibilities. The gang discuss what these breakthroughs mean for the energy transition. 

As always, please get in touch and let us know your thoughts. Check out our Twitter to suggest any future topics you want us to discuss. We’re @TheEnergyGang.  

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The energy industry influences climate change, and climate change also influences the energy industry. Understanding the consequences of a warming world is essential for making the right decisions as trillions of dollars are invested in energy production around the world. While we work to mitigate climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changes that we cannot prevent.

On the Energy Gang today, Ed Crooks and Melissa Lott are joined by Dr Sarah Kapnick from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The NOAA collects data from a fleet of satellites, buoys, weather stations and balloons, and uses the information to try to understand our changing world. Its data and modelling on global warming and its impacts is increasingly being used to inform decisions on renewable investment, emergency planning, technology and more. Melissa also works on these issues in her role as Director of Research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

How do we collect climate data? What impacts of climate change have we seen already, and what can we expect to see in the future? How can we use the information we have to make the best decisions when it comes to curtailing carbon emissions?

Climate change was a significant factor in the huge wildfires that hit the US West Coast in recent years, because of two decades of abnormally low precipitation. Dr Kapnick explains how that should influence companies’ and regulators’ decisions about investment and risk management. Wind power generation in Europe was hit by unexpectedly low wind strength in 2021. Climate data and models can inform companies facing these kinds of problems, and should help them plan their investments and operations more effectively, so they can keep the lights on while holding costs down.

All this and more on a special climate-focused edition of the Energy Gang. As always, check out our Twitter to let us know your thoughts and any future topics you want us to discuss. We’re @TheEnergyGang. 

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The US Clean Energy Boom: What Might Stop It?

The US Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden last August, has transformed the outlook for low-carbon energy in the US, because of the array of tax credits and other policy support that has been put in place.

Over at Wood Mackenzie we do regular forecasts for the outlook for renewable energy investment in the US and as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act, we have raised our forecast of new solar capacity installations in the US over the coming decade by 50%, and our forecast for wind power installations by 84%.

So, things looks really good for low-carbon energy in the US. Arguably better than they have ever looked, in fact. But we can’t just leave it there, with everything seeming right with the world. We need to talk about the barriers that could stop or slow down that boom in low-carbon energy investment.

Robbie Orvis, Senior Director of Modelling and Analysis at Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC and Amy Myers-Jaffe, Director of the Energy, Climate Justice & Sustainability Lab, and research professor at NYU, join Ed Crooks on today’s episode to discuss those obstacles, and try to answer the question of whether all this expected extra investment from the Inflation Reduction Act might not happen.

The gang also discuss topics including critical minerals — could they be as problematic as fossil fuels — and the issue of energy security. The US is just about self-sufficient in oil and a net exporter of gas. But in battery raw materials it is going to have to be an importer, and mineral processing and cell manufacture are largely concentrated in China. How much of a worry is that?

Finally, they discuss low-carbon energy and economic nationalism. Countries are competing to develop their own low-carbon industries, and a little healthy competition is a good thing, right? It’s stimulating ever-more generous support for low-carbon energy. But could it also be causing some problems?

As always, let us know your thoughts or any topics you’d like us to cover in future by getting in touch on Twitter. We’re @TheEnergyGang.

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What’s led the world to restart the stalled atomic engine?

2022 was a year of important milestones for nuclear power. The most significant piece of climate legislation in US history – the IRA – included tax incentives and investment for the nuclear industry. A $15 per megawatt-hour tax credit for production to keep existing plants competitive, as well as $700 million to build a domestic supply chain for modern reactors, was a statement of intent from a government seeking to increase energy security. There is a resurgence of interest in nuclear power around the world. From the support for nuclear power in recent legislation in the US, to the plans for new reactors in France and the UK, to Japan’s commitment to a new generation of advanced nuclear technology.

Soaring prices for natural gas and concerns about energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have prompted renewed interest in reliable sources of supply. And at the same time, the international pressure to address climate change has not faded. So, zero-emissions sources have the greatest long-term potential. Diablo Canyon in California, Vogtle in Georgia, as well as major projects planned for Poland and Finland have put nuclear firmly back in the spotlight. How far has safety and efficiency developed in the past decades? What’s driven the industry to restart engine of atomic power, previously stalled for decades?

We’ve had a lot of correspondence to the show about nuclear power, so we’re dedicating the entire hour to the topic. Ed Crooks is back in the host seat, joined by a distinguished panel of guests. We welcome two new faces to the gang: Katy Huff, Assistant Secretary and head of the Office of Nuclear Energy at the Department of Energy and Carl Perez, CEO of Exodys Energy. Also joining the show is Melissa Lott, Director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s Climate Lab. 

It’s a packed show, with discussion on the Biden administration’s strategy for increased nuclear planning, the type of reactors and Exodys Energy’s role in developing the technology, and the challenges to increase nuclear development.

Let us know your thoughts on nuclear – we’re @TheEnergyGang.

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The Energy Gang is back. We’re only a couple of weeks into the new year but already so much has happened.

A mild winter so far in Europe has sent wholesale gas prices falling, but there’s still a long way to go. Natural gas is expected to trade at 77.11 Euros per MWh by the end of the quarter, down to pre-Ukraine war levels. With prices down 50% since the December peak, what is that going to do for the rest of the world? It’s just one question we have as the gang looks ahead to 2023 and discuss the opportunities or challenges that may await the energy industry. 

Melissa Lott, Director of the Centre on Global Energy Policy, is joined by Amy Myers-Jaffe – Director of the Energy, Climate Justice & Sustainability Lab, and research professor at NYU. Together they look forward to the next 12 months: we’re approaching a year of war in Ukraine but how much longer will it continue? What will that do for energy prices and investment this year? 

Environmental action in 2023 will also be put under the microscope – who is investing, and where? Will we see a doubling-down on alternative energy or a shift back to legacy fuel production to mitigate recession?

Finally, the first COP to be held in the Middle East approaches at the end of the year. It’s a massive test of the credibility of the Gulf region’s net zero ambitions and pledges. Will it push them to decarbonise, or have previous COPs shown us that it’s all talk, no action?

As always, check out our Twitter to let us know your thoughts and any future topics you want us to discuss. We’re @TheEnergyGang. 

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2022 has been a very eventful year in the world of energy. From January to December there has been an ongoing war, a European energy crisis, billions of dollars in funding for clean energy in the US and a Twitter takeover. 

It’s the last episode of the year so we’re bringing you a special edition of the Energy Gang. Join host Ed Crooks and recurring Energy Gang guests, Amy Harder of Cipher, and Melissa Lott of Columbia University, as they wrap up the year by highlighting important moments in the energy transition, month-by-month. 

As always, check out our Twitter to let us know your thoughts and any future topics you want us to discuss. We’re @TheEnergyGang. 

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The year is quickly coming to a close and there’s a lot going on in the world of energy. 

On this episode of the Energy Gang, host Ed Crooks is joined for the first time by Jackie Forrest of the ARC Energy Research Institute and returning guest Robbie Orvis of Energy Innovation. The gang starts off the discussion by answering the question, what does a split US Congress mean for the energy transition. Under the current administration, a lot of progress has been made in the advancement of meeting our clean energy goals with the implementation of The Inflation Reduction Act. Now that the Republicans have taken control of the House what does this mean for US energy policy over the next couple of years? Will it now fall on individual states to implement reform, like California passing their ZEV mandate?

The Inflation Reduction Act includes significant incentives for companies to establish clean energy manufacturing, which has motivated companies in other countries to pressure their government to make similar advancements. The Canadian government has introduced tax incentives for clean energy projects for the first time as companies threaten to move their manufacturing to the US. 

Lastly, the gang discusses the role of natural gas in the energy transition. Can natural gas be a bridge fuel that will help us meet our energy needs? The release of the International Energy Agency report shows that there is need for significant investment in new gas wells to meet net-zero goals. With peak demand for heat in Northern climates, the gang explores why fully replacing gas might be hard and why we should consider low-carbon gas as an option.

As always, check out our Twitter to let us know your thoughts and any future topics you want us to discuss. We’re @TheEnergyGang. 

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