Last week, France’s president Emmanuel Macron threw the EU bubble into turmoil by suggesting that Europe should not become the United States’ “vassal” over Taiwan. But is the controversy overshadowing the possibility that he could be right? This week, Mark Leonard welcomes two ECFR colleagues: director of the Wider Europe programme and former French diplomat, Marie Dumoulin, and head of the Paris office and expert in French and US foreign policy, Célia Belin. . What explains Macron’s way of thinking and is there a domestic context to his comments? And what do the strong reactions say about how Europeans view strategic autonomy in the context of the war in Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023. Bookshelf: The Cat and the General by Nino Haratischwili Living with our Dead by Delphine Horvilleur

Although European leaders have stepped up in many ways to support Ukraine, the war has also laid bare Europe’s profound dependence on the United States. This reality was at the heart of French president Emmanuel Macron’s recent call for more “strategic autonomy”, which stirred a new debate over the transatlantic power imbalance. It was also the topic of a new publication, “The Art of Vassalisation”, from ECFR’s research director, Jeremy Shapiro, and senior policy fellow and head of the Berlin office, Jana Puglierin, who join week Mark Leonard for this week’s episode. What factors influence “vassalisation”, and is it really more beneficial for the Americans? And how seriously are Europeans taking the risk of a Republican victory in 2024? This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2023. Please note that we adapted the introduction to Macron’s interview on 9 April, but some views of our experts might be outdated. An in-depth analysis of the current events will soon follow in an extra episode. Bookshelf: - Revanche: Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat by Michael Thumann - Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz - Slow Horses with Jack Lowden, Kristin Scott Thomas & Gary Oldman

From the rise of China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to more independent middle and regional powers – our global political order is rapidly changing. But what is Hungary’s position in this increasingly multipolar world? In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Balazs Orban, the political director of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban. (They are not related.) Balazs is also the chair of the board at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium and in 2021 wrote a book called “The Hungarian Way of Strategy”, in which he describes the country’s “strategy of connectivity”. How does the European Union fit into this vision? And what kind of relationship does Hungary expect to have with Russia when the war eventuallycomes to an end? This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2023. Bookshelf: The Hungarian Way of Strategy by Balázs Orbán Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger Nationale Interessen: Orientierung für deutsche und europäische Politik in Zeiten globaler Umbrüche by Klaus von Dohnanyi

Last week, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping completed a three-day visit to Moscow, his first since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Xi and Vladimir Putin had famously announced a “friendship without limits”. But it is unclear whether that relationship is purely transactional, a marriage of convenience, or based on more fundamental, ideological factors. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by the director of ECFR's Asia programme, Janka Oertel, and ECFR policy fellow, Alicja Bachulska, to discuss China-Russia relations. How best to explain the “friendship without limits”? What are the key takeaways from Xi's Russia trip? And how has Xi's embrace of Putin been perceived in central and eastern Europe? This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023. Bookshelf: Our Share of Night: a novel by Mariana Enriquez Economists at War: how a handful of Economists helped win and lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard

Last week, China helped broker an agreement between long-feuding Saudi Arabia and Iran to begin the process of normalising their relations. Both the deal and China’s role surprised many observers – especially in the West. So, how significant is the agreement, and what consequences will it have for the Middle East? To address this and other questions, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme; Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow and Gulf expert; and Andrew Small, China expert and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Does this deal mean Beijing could play a constructive role in ending the war in Ukraine? Or should the United States be alarmed that China is encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence? This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2023. Bookshelf: Aftermath: Life in the Fallout of the Third Reich, 1945-1955 by Harald Jähner Berlin: The Story of a City by Barney White-Spunner Economists at War: How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Christoph Heusgen, longstanding foreign policy chief during the Merkel years and now chair of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Western and non-Western reactions to the war in Ukraine – and, in particular, the role of Germany. Should Berlin have taken a harder line against Russia after 2014? How can Scholz realise his vision for the Zeitenwende? And what is stopping Germany from engaging more in developing countries? This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2023. Bookshelf: The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict by Mark Leonard Führung und Verantwortung: Angela Merkels Außenpolitik und Deutschlands künftige Rolle in der Welt by Christoph Heusgen

A year into the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions remain the West’s strongest instrument against Russia. But the Russian economy has proven surprisingly resilient: Russia still sells oil to Turkey and China, and – according to a recent investigation by The Economist and SourceMaterial – the Kremlin’s sanctions-dodging is becoming increasingly advanced. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by James O’Brien, head of the office of sanctions coordination at the US State Department, to discuss the efficacy of economic sanctions. What ripple effects have sanctions had for Western and third countries? Is the United States currently mulling sanctions against China? And what alternatives are there, if sanctions no longer work as intended? This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2023. Bookshelf - Backfire by Agathe Demarais - Russia’s sanctions-dodging is getting ever more sophisticated by The Economist and SourceMaterial - Talking to Terrorists by Jonathan Powell - We Don’t Know Ourselves by Fintan O’Toole - The Baseball 100 by Joe Posnanski Picture (c) picture alliance / Consolidated News Photos | Rod Lamkey - CNP

Some analysts argue that capitalism would work better without democracy, while others believe that democracy would be better off without capitalism – so what’s the solution? In his new book “The crisis of democratic capitalism”, Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, sets out how they actually need one another if either is to thrive. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard welcomes Wolf to discuss what democratic capitalism is all about and how it is threatened by two distinct authoritarian versions of capitalism. What does all this mean for the development of democracy and capitalism in developing and emerging economies? And what are the chances that democratic capitalism will remain the model to which countries around the world aspire? This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023. Bookshelf - The crisis of democratic capitalism by Martin Wolf - Slouching towards utopia by J. Bradford DeLong

A major new public opinion poll from ECFR indicates that, a year into Russia's war on Ukraine, the Western alliance is consolidating – but that there are divisions between the West and other global powers. These divergences range from their views of the conflict to their interpretations of democracy and their ambitions on the world stage. In this week's episode, the authors of the research – Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev – discuss its main findings and the future of the world order. Does Europe have a strong role to play in a multipolar world, or will it forever live in the United States’ shadow? How can the West use the desire in emerging powers to act on their own terms to its advantage? And what principles should drive Europe’s engagement with those countries? This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2023. Further reading - United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/ Bookshelf - Homelands: A Personal History of Europe by Timothy Garton Ash - The Frontline by Serhii Plokhy - The Shape of the Ruins by Juan Gabriel Vásquez

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended many Western leaders’ previous assumptions about security policy, warfare, and the international order. Mark Leonard and his ECFR colleagues Camille Grand, Jana Puglierin, and Ulrike Franke got together at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend to discuss the dramatic changes – such as Germany's Zeitenwende – that have taken place as a result of these revisions. They analyse MSC speeches from Volodymir Zelensky, Olaf Scholz, and Emmanuel Macron, as well as the announcement of a plan for peace talks by China's top diplomat Wang Yi. What is on the transatlantic to-do list? And how can the West forge more and better alliances with countries in the global south? This podcast was recorded on 17 February 2023. Further reading: - The Munich Security Report 2023 Bookshelf: - Au café de la ville perdue [FR] by Anaïs Llobet - Les Loups [FR] by Benoît Vitkine

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Michael Thumann, foreign affairs correspondent for the German weekly newspaper Die ZEIT, longtime expert on Russia, and one of the only German correspondents still reporting from Moscow. Following the publication of Thumann’s new book, “Revanche. Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat” (“Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”, currently only available in German), he and Leonard discuss the roots of the Russian regime’s imperialistic behaviour. What is the relevance of Vladimir Putin’s interpretation of Russian history? Could Russia become a ‘normal country’ in the future? And how have Germans’ views of Russia changed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2023. Further reading: - Revanche by Michael Thumann [available only in GER]: https://buff.ly/3lppnPn - The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations by Kadri Liik: https://t.co/W42ylXEfDp Bookshelf: - Geschichten aus der Heimat by Dmitry Glukhovsky [available only in GER] - Day of the Oprichnik by Vladimir Sorokin - The Frontline Essays on Ukraine’s Past and Present by Serhii Plokhy

Over the last decades, sanctions have become the West’s diplomatic tool par excellence. Faced with wars, humanitarian crises, and human rights violations, the West’s response has often been to impose sanctions to avoid resorting to military force. This week, Mark Leonard invited Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit and author of “Backfire - How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests”, to talk about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective. Have the sanctions on Russia been successful? Is there a danger of the West becoming over-reliant on them? And will they eventually be replaced by other economic weapons? This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2023. Further reading -ECFR’s work on geo-economics: https://ecfr.eu/category/europeanpower/economic-sovereignty/ - Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests by Agathe Demarais - The global race for semiconductor hegemony with Janka Oertel, Chris Miller and Andrew Small Bookshelf - What You Have Heard Is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché - Kochland by Christopher Leonard - Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe Picture © Agathe Demarais

On 25 January, after months of deliberation, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – and permit other countries to do the same. What led to this turnaround? Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR heavyweights on security and defence policy – Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro – to discuss what this decision means for the war in Ukraine, for German diplomacy, and for transatlantic relations. Will the unity on show at last week's Ramstein meeting continue in the long term? And what is the future of military aid for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2023. Further reading - The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory by Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss and Jana Puglierin: https://t.co/2798lmtF1x - Send in the Leopards: Why Western allies should deliver tanks to Ukraine by Margaryta Khvostova & Dmytro Kryvosheiev: https://t.co/BV7Hs0TvYx Bookshelf: - Les Ambitions Inavouées by Thomas Gomart - Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West by Catherine Belton - Maybe Esther by Katja Petrowskaja - Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine: Mission Impossible by Sabine Fischer - The Bernie Gunther series by Philip Kerr

This week’s episode comes to you all the way from the snowy peaks of Davos, Switzerland. Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR board member Alexander Stubb – who is director of the school of transnational governance at the European University Institute in Florence and a former prime minister of Finland – to give us their take on this year's World Economic Forum. What does cooperation in a fragmented world look like? Does the war in Ukraine still top the bill in every WEF session, and how do leaders discuss the energy crisis? Leonard and Stubb share their thoughts on all this and more, including the US Inflation Reduction Act, India’s role in the multipolar world, and Olaf Scholz’s speech. This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2023. Bookshelf: • Personality and Power: Builders and Destroyers of Modern Europe by Ian Kershaw • Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Catherine Ashton – the European Union’s first high representative for foreign affairs and security policy and the first female EU commissioner for trade – to talk about her new book “And Then What? Inside Stories of 21st Century Diplomacy”. As a seasoned mediator, Ashton played a crucial role in negotiating the ‘Brussels agreement’ between Serbia and Kosovo in 2013 and the Joint Plan of Action with Iran the same year. But what is her outlook on diplomacy today? How can diplomats lay the groundwork for success? Concerning Ukraine, what are the chances for diplomacy under such difficult global conditions? And what role should the United Kingdom play in future European and international relations? This podcast was recorded on 1o January 2023. Bookshelf: - And Then What? Inside Stories of 21st Century Diplomacy by Catherine Ashton - Never by Ken Follett - Leadership: Lessons from a Life in Diplomacy by Simon McDonald

Our beloved predictions episode is back! As they do every year, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro forecast the foreign policy trends and events for the year ahead. If other analysts saw it coming, Mark and Jeremy certainly didn’t. Their 2022 prediction of “no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine” really threw last year’s scoring off leaving them with only 6/10 points. Will they do better this time? And what are your foreign policy predictions for 2023? Send us an email or tweet them to us using #Worldin30Minutes! This podcast was recorded on 4 January 2023. Further reading: 2023: The year we learn to stop worrying by Mark Leonard & Jeremy Shapiro Bookshelf: • Vladimir by Julia May Jonas • Anéantir by Michel Houellebecq • Exhalation by Ted Chiang

After the EU finally came to an agreement with Hungary over financial aid for Ukraine, all eyes are now on Poland and its own protracted conflict with Brussels over its rule-of-law inadequacies. Meanwhile, a series of public spats between Warsaw and Berlin has drawn attention to the rifts within the EU and a new East-West divide. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin, heads of ECFR’s Warsaw and Berlin offices respectively and senior policy fellows. Together they talk about Poland’s standing within the EU and Polish-German relations. What is the state of the rule of law in Poland? How has the war in Ukraine affected Polish politics and Poland’s relationship to its neighbours and the EU? And finally, why does Poland have it out for Germany? This podcast was recorded on 16 December 2022. Further reading - “The final countdown: The EU, Poland, and the rule of law” by Piotr Buras: https://buff.ly/3WjF7k6 Bookshelf - “Spat Over Patriot Missiles Reveals Deepening Rifts in Europe Over Ukraine” by Steven Erlanger in the New York Times - “Barcelona” by Robert Hughes - “Youth: Scenes from Provincial Life II” by J. M. Coetzee

New mini-series! Subscribe here: https://soundcloud.com/ecfrclips China is becoming ever more important to global affairs. But the covid-19 pandemic, as well as political and geopolitical challenges, mean that Europeans’ ability to engage with Chinese thinkers and understand their views and ideas about the world has diminished. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard and Janka Oertel will try to change that by engaging in conversations with some of the best Chinese academics, researchers, writers, and journalists on diverse topics in Chinese internal debates that matter most to Europeans. In the first episode, the hosts are joined by Wang Jisi, the founding president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University and one of the world’s most prominent scholars on US-China relations. Together, we will learn about China’s understanding of global order and the recent developments in the geopolitical landscape with a focus on US-China. What can we take away from China’s stance at the G20 summit? What is to come for US-China relations going forward? And finally, what do the outcomes of the 20th Party Congress mean for Europe and the world? This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022, one day before the Urumqi apartment fire, which was followed by nationwide protests against the zero-covid policy in China.

The European Council is considering freezing €7.5 billion in funds allocated to Hungary due to concerns about rule of law violations. Meanwhile, prime minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a controversial “national consultation” concerning EU sanctions against Russia, increasingly isolating Hungary among member states. In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard is joined by Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, to discuss the situation in the country. What would the freezing of EU-funds mean for Hungary-EU relations and Hungary’s role in the union? What new alliances is Orban trying to foster among other illiberal governments in Europe? And finally, how could Hungary’s confrontational approach to Brussels shape European foreign policy when it comes to Russia, and even China? This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2022. Bookshelf: • “Tainted Democracy: Victor Orbán and the Subversion of Hungary” by Zsuzsanna Szelényi • “Mind the gaps: The pending suspension of Hungary’s EU funds” by Zsuzsanna Végh •“How to Stand Up to a Dictator” by Maria Ressa

From search engines to social media, from navigation systems to medical gear, our everyday lives are already intertwined with artificial intelligence. But as AI becomes ever more powerful, questions around security risks, ethical use and disinformation arise. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Stuart Russell, professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences and holder of the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering at the University of California at Berkeley. They discuss artificial intelligence’s capabilities to solve global problems and humans’ ability to control its dark side. What benefits can AI bring to health and education? How do algorithms foster extremism and the polarisation of public debates? And finally, could lethal autonomous weapons be ethically used? This podcast was recorded on 3 November 2022. Bookshelf: -“Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” by Nick Bostrom - “Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence” by Max Tegmark - “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity” by Toby Ord - “The Culture series” by Iain M. Banks

The semiconductor industry has become the cornerstone of the structure of the global economy and the balance of geopolitical power. And Europe has now joined the United States and China in a ‘chip war’ for global semiconductor domination. In this week’s episode, Janka Oertel, head of ECFR´s Asia programme and senior policy fellow, is joined by Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at Tufts University, and Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund and ECFR alumnus. They discuss how chips decide power in today’s geopolitical competition. What role does Taiwan’s leadership in semiconductor production play in tensions with China? And to what extent will Europe align and integrate with the United States’ China policy in the upcoming years? This podcast was recorded on 16 November 2022. Bookshelf: •“Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology” by Chris Miller • “The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future” by Andrew Small - One of the FT Best Books on Politics 2022 • “Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China after Stalin and Mao” by Joseph Torigian • “The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money and the End of America's Domination of Finance and Technology” by Martin Chorzempa

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. ----- In this sixth instalment, Leonard is joined by Comfort Ero – president and CEO of the International Crisis Group – to learn more about the Nigerian perspective on global order. How can oil and gas output help Nigeria position itself advantageously in the context of the war in Ukraine? What role do African regionalism and Pax Africana play in building the continent’s capacity to respond to crises? And finally, to what extent do the recent crisis in Libya and the hypermilitarisation of the Sahel shape understandings about ‘order’ in Nigeria today? Further reading: • “Principles for global order: How Europeans and the global south can shape the international order together” by Theodore Murphy Bookshelf: • “Africa and the International System: The Politics of State Survival” by Christopher Clapham • Africa Confidential newsletter • “Why is the US role in Africa Shrinking?” by Zainab Usman • “Imagine Nigeria: Exploring the Future of Nigeria” by the Government of Nigeria and UNDP

9 November is a day of low and high points in history – moments of both loss and of joy. Some important examples include the Pogromnacht in 1938 or the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which marked the end of the cold war. But 9 November 2007 was also the day that brought ECFR’s 50 founding members together, united by a sense that the EU member states could combine their values and resources to become a prototype for a global open society. In this special episode, ECFR council member Mabel van Oranje hosts director Mark Leonard, as well as ECFR founding members Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European studies at the University of Oxford, and Ivan Krastev, chair of the board at the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia. They explore how the momentous historical events of 9 November can help Europeans make sense of the current moment of disorder. Is a reversal happening of the world order brought about by 9 November 1989? What has ECFR’s role been in helping Europe find a strong, united voice and what will it be in the critical times ahead? And finally, can we expect a rebalancing of power in Europe after the war in Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2022.

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. --- In this fifth episode, Leonard is joined by Vali Nasr – Majid Khadduri professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins -SAIS, and a non-resident senior fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center – to learn more about the Iranian perspective on global order. What role does anti-Americanism play in advancing Iran’s interest in the Middle East? How are notions of power, freedom, and justice between Iranian leaders and the population different? And finally, to what extent do the Iran-Iraq War and Western sanctions shape understandings about “order” today in Iran? Bookshelf: •“The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat” by Vali Nasr • “Forces of Fortune: The Rise of a New Muslim Middle Class and How it Will Change Our World” by Vali Nasr • “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future” by Vali Nasr • “Persians: The Age of the Great Kings” by Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. --- In this fourth instalment, Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov – chair of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal – to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order. Why is the Kremlin so keen on regional integration? How can power guarantee freedom and achieve justice in a rules-based order? And finally, what role do the Soviet Union and notions of imperial greatness play in Vladimir Putin’s ideal of Russia? Bookshelf: • Russia in Global Affairs journal, Issue 3 2022 July/September and Issue 4 2022 October/November • “Europe, Russia and the Liberal World Order: International Relations after the Cold War” by Timofei Bordachev • Complete works of Nikolai Gogol

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. --- In this third episode, Leonard is joined by Pratap Bhanu Mehta – Laurance S Rockefeller visiting professor at Princeton University and former president of the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank – to discuss the Indian perspective on order. What is the link between civilisational power and Hindu nationalism? Why is the concept of development so important for a just international order? And finally, how does the deep memory of independence and partition shape contemporary Indian politics? Bookshelf • “The Burden of Democracy” by Pratap Bhanu Mehta • “Public Institutions in India: Performance and Design” by Devesh Kapur & Pratap Bhanu Mehta • “Non-Alignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the 21st Century” by Sunil Khilnani et al. • PM Modi's speech at foundation stone laying ceremony of development projects in Ayodhya • “The Mirror & The Light” by Hilary Mantel

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. -- In this second instalment, Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow and in-house Turkey expert at ECFR, to talk about the country’s understanding of order. Does Russia’s control and presence in Turkey's backyard pose a strategic problem? How can the Pax Ottomana push back against a Western-dominated world order? And finally, what role do narratives about the Battle of Independence and the Conquest of Istanbul play in repositioning Turkey’s greatness? Bookshelf: • “The Balance Game” by Selim Deringil • “The Dangerous Decade: A Foreign Policy for a World in Crisis” by Richard Haas • “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson

Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order’. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. -- In this first episode, Leonard is joined by Rana Mitter, vice-president of the British Academy and professor of the history and politics of modern China at the University of Oxford, to talk about the Chinese understanding of order. How are economic inequalities and covid-19 challenging Chinese stability? What is the role of multilateralism in the international system? And finally, how do narratives of the past shape understandings of ‘order’ today? Bookshelf •“China’s Good War: How World War II Is Shaping a New Nationalism” by Rana Mitter • “Is the Growing Pessimism About China Warranted?” (2016) ChinaFile Conversation • “In the Name of the People” (2017) TV series

The success of Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy in the recent Italian general election has sent shudders around Europe. With Meloni set to form a coalition of right-wingers and Eurosceptics, her foreign policy agenda could call into question the very foundations of the European project. Alongside Poland and Hungary, Italy could join calls for greater national sovereignty, aiming to shift the balance of power away from Brussels technocracy. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR council members Nathalie Tocci, who is the director of Italy's Istituto Affari Internazionali, and Marta Dassu, senior advisor for Europe at the Aspen Institute, as well as Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR´s Rome Office and senior policy fellow. They discuss the implications of the new government in Rome and whether it does indeed point to a shift to the right. What will be the new government's stance be on Russia and its war in Ukraine? And how could constraints such as debt and the coherence of the coalition challenge Meloni’s government? This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2022. Further reading: The Draghi effect: Italy’s new-old national interest by Arturo Varvelli https://buff.ly/3SpBirt Bookshelf - “Italy Transformed: Politics, Society and Institutions at the End of the Great Recession” by Martin J. Bull & Gianfranco Pasquino - “Bloodlands” by Timothy D. Snyder - “A Green and Global Europe” by Nathalie Tocci - “Il mago del Cremlino” by Giuliano da Empoli Image by picture alliance / EPA | CLAUDIO PERI ©

Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial military mobilisation in Russia reinforces the idea that the Ukraine war will not end quickly and that Ukraine and its partners need to prepare for a long war. The Kremlin is sending a clear signal to the West that it will do whatever it takes to succeed—or at least not to fail. For Ukraine to survive and thrive in the long-war, the EU and its member states should formulate a comprehensive mechanism to support their eastern neighbour. In doing so, Europeans can lay the foundations for a functioning Ukraine, deter Russia from further aggression, and perhaps even point the way toward a settlement of the conflict. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR's Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan. Why is investment in industrial warfare supply chains so crucial? How can security assurances for Ukraine enhance deterrence and reduce the potential for escalation? And finally, why should the EU provide medium-term access for Ukraine to the European single market? This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2022. Further reading: Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia, by Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Gustav Gressel & Jeremy Shapiro https://ecfr.eu/publication/survive-and-thrive-a-european-plan-to-support-ukraine-in-the-long-war-against-russia/ Bookshelf - “Essays” by George Orwell - “Jerusalem: The Biography” by Simon Sebag Montefiore - “The Habsburg Empire: A New History” by Pieter M. Judson - “The Found and the Lost: The Collected Novellas of Ursula K. Le Guin” by Ursula K. Le Guin

This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit makes tangible the existence of an alternative international community. Featuring leaders from Russia, China, and India it is the organisation's first face-to-face meeting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is a clear goal at the core of the discussions: power politics and the race to multipolarism as an alternative to Western liberalism. In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the summit's geopolitical implications. How is SCO “dialogue partner” Turkey using the Ukraine war to get the best of both worlds? How much will Iran's imminent membership advance its security? And finally, what would be the implications for Beijing if Putin were to lose power, and how can China support the Kremlin? This podcast was recorded on 16 September 2022. Further reading: Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Marie Dumoulin, Ellie Geranmayeh & Janka Oertel: https://buff.ly/3xuLMOa Bookshelf - “Jamais Frères? Ukraine Et Russie: Une Tragédie Postsoviétique" by Anna Coulin Lebdevev - “The Rest Is Politics” podcast by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. - “Die beste aller möglichen Welten” by Michael Kempe - “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson - “The Found and the Lost: The Collected Novellas of Ursula K. Le Guin” by Ursula K. Le Guin

As fundamental freedoms are being challenged worldwide, the very idea of open societies is being questioned. The crisis of liberalism and the decline of the West, together with increased disinformation and polarisation, have revealed inequality and the need for critical public debate as a central issue for the advancement of open societies. In this week’s podcast, Leonard Benardo, executive vice president for the Open Society Foundations, joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing. What role do identity politics play when thinking about solidarity and social cohesion? How can the digital revolution impact electoral democracy? And finally, how can we ensure that Ukraine as an open society is retained? This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2022. Bookshelf: - "Against Decolonisation. Taking African Agency Seriously" by Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò - "Know Your Enemy" podcast hosted by Matthew Sitman and Sam Adler-Bell - Follow @samagreene and @rochowanski for food for thought and debates on the Eurasian space

Global crises – from the covid-19 pandemic and climate change to Russia's war on Ukraine have challenged the core tenets of the globalised world. Europe has been at the centre of this upheaval. And the continent now faces tough decisions on its energy markets, trade partnerships, and supply chains. In this special episode, recorded in front of a live audience at the European Forum Alpbach in Austria, Mark Leonard is joined by co-chair of ECFR, Carl Bildt, Austrian federal minister for the EU and constitution, Karoline Edtstadler, and non-resident fellow at Bruegel, Thomas Wieser. Together, they discuss how to strike the right balance between the need for sovereignty and the benefits of globalisation. What are the biggest threats to the European market economies and what are the opportunities? Will Europeans learn from Russia’s weaponisation of energy when it comes to its dependencies on China? And is there a way to ‘disarm’ connectivity? This podcast was recorded live at the European Forum Alpbach on 1 September 2022. Bookshelf: - The World of Yesterday by Stefan Zweig - Dunkelblum by Eva Menasse - History of the Adriatic: A Sea and Its Civilization by Egidio Ivetic picture (c) Hans Hofer

In his recent book “Another World Is Possible”, Geoff Mulgan – professor of collective intelligence, public policy, and social innovation at University College London – identifies a crisis that does not usually feature prominently in threat assessments: an absence of political imagination. This deficit has not only distorted policymakers’ sense of the past and present but also weakened their ability to make future-proofed decisions in various areas. In this week’s episode, Mulgan joins Mark Leonard to explore the causes and consequences of this crisis. They discuss how to restore imagination and harness creativity to solve current and future problems. Why does the idea of utopia matter? How can we harmonise competing narratives about the future? And where do China and India come in to all this? This podcast was recorded on 6 July 2022. Further reading Another World Is Possible: How to Reignite Social and Political Imagination by Geoff Mulgan: https://buff.ly/3A1xUgd The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson Bookshelf: The Trial by Sergei Loznitsa Babi Yar. Context by Sergei Loznitsa

Germany's ‘traffic light’ coalition has ushered in a new age of German politics – and a new generation of political figures. Last year, in a departure from the staid Merkel era, German citizens elected a parliament that is less ‘pale, male, and stale’ than ever before. The new cabinet reflects this change – in terms of youth and gender at least. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard, interviews the German author and journalist, Anna Sauerbrey. They discuss her latest book, “Machtwechsel” (Change of Power), in which she analyses how this diverse intake is challenging the status quo of German politics. But how does Chancellor Olaf Scholz fit in? What is a ‘Zeitgenosse’? And what do white sneakers have to do with anything? This podcast was recorded on 6 July 2022. Further reading - Machtwechsel by Anna Sauerbrey: https://buff.ly/3Spm5au - War and Indignation by Jürgen Habermas in Süddeutsche Zeitung: https://buff.ly/3BCQKvb - A Millennial considers the new German Problem after 30 Years of Peace by Ulrike Franke in War on the Rocks: https://buff.ly/3xhFCz3 Bookshelf: - East West Street by Philipp Sands - The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War by Nicholas Mulder picture (c) picture alliance / EPA | SASCHA STEINBACH / POOL

As blistering heatwaves and raging forest fires sweep across Europe, climate change is once again back on the agenda. But Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the consequent reduction in energy supplies to Europe has greatly complicated Europe’s green transition. Some observers argue that a cold-turkey withdrawal from Russian fossil fuels will speed up the transition to renewable energy, but others predict that climate goals will fall by the wayside as European leaders turn to coal and whatever else is available to make up for the lack of Russian oil and gas. In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director seizes the reins of power as host from a vacationing Mark Leonard and talks to Susi Dennison, director of ECFR’s European Power programme, and Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at Bruegel about these competing narratives. Will Europe manage to maintain unity as winter approaches? What does this mean for its efforts in climate diplomacy? This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2022. Further reading - Green peace: How Europe’s climate policy can survive the war in Ukraine by Susi Dennison: https://buff.ly/3NqrHxw - Own coal: Why Europe could lose its green transition by Susi Dennison: https://buff.ly/3R2QuL7 - Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains by Agatha Kratz, Charlie Vest, and Janka Oertel: https://buff.ly/3w67gAB Bookshelf: - How the World Really Works: A Scientist’s Guide to Our Past, Present and Future by Vaclav Smil - Violetta by Isabel Allende - The Neapolitan Novels by Elena Ferrante

Ian Bremmer wrote his latest book before Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine. Yet, ‘The Power of Crisis’, which went into press on 26 February 2022, identifies three transformational global challenges besides the war: public health emergencies, the technological revolution, and climate change. In today's podcast, Bremmer joins Mark Leonard to discuss the concept of a “goldilocks” crisis, the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, and Europe’s role in global upheavals. How can Europeans learn to survive and even thrive during current and forthcoming crises? And how can countries cooperate effectively in an age of great power competition? This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2022. Further reading - The Power of Crisis by Ian Bremmer https://buff.ly/3uKRbzd Bookshelf - The Body Scout by Lincoln Michel

In July, Mark Leonard launched the newly released paperback edition of his book - "The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict" (Penguin) - with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its geopolitical impact. Together with Fiona Hill, senior fellow at Brookings, and Jason Cowley, editor-in-chief of the New Statesman, he discusses a new way of looking at the origins of the war in Ukraine, the way it is being conducted and the implications for global (geo-)politics. Is the “Age of Unpeace” just another term for a cold war? And will global challenges – like climate change – in the end still bind us together? Or does the “Unpeace” era make us even less able to tackle those? The material for this podcast was recorded on 8 July 2022. Available here: https://buff.ly/3RAyiZC Learn more about “The Age of Unpeace”: - https://soundcloud.com/ecfr/age-of-unpeace - https://www.politico.eu/article/welcome-to-the-age-of-unpeace-geopolitics-conflict/ Bookshelf - There Is Nothing for You Here: Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century by Fiona Hill - Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin by Jason Cowley

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s visit to Teheran in June was meant to revitalise negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal. But the talks, which recently resumed in Doha, remain mired in mistrust and intransigence from both sides. For this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard has assembled a team of Iran experts to take stock of the negotiations in Qatar: ECFR senior policy fellow, Ellie Geranmayeh; former Iranian diplomat and security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University, Hossein Mousavian; professor of Middle East studies and international affairs, Vali Nasr; and the director of International Crisis Group's Iran project, Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences. Is there any chance of breaking the stalemate without escalation? And what will be the impact of the upcoming midterm elections in the US? This podcast was recorded on 1 July 2022. Further reading: - Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal By Ellie Geranmayeh Bookshelf: - Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa by James Lynch - Born in Blackness by Howard W French - Master of the Game by Martin Indyk - Republics of Myth by Hussein Banai, Malcolm Byrne, And John Tirman Cover image: EU High Representative Josep Borrell visits Iran · Image by European Union, 2022

NATO members emerged from their summit in Madrid this week having reached consensus on a new Strategic Concept, Sweden’s and Finland’s accession, and increased readiness capabilities on the eastern flank. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at ECFR and former chief executive of the European Defence Agency; Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office; and Tara Varma, head of ECFR’s Paris office, to evaluate the summit’s outcomes, especially regarding European defence. How can Europeans coordinate increased military expenditure? What is the European Defence Union? And was Nick Witney right to describe the summit as “the most promising conjunction of planets”? This podcast was recorded on 1 July 2022. Further reading: - NATO’s new Strategic Concept - The EU’s Strategic Compass Bookshelf: - The Way We Live Now by Anthony Trollope - Au café de la ville perdue by Anaïs Llobet - The NATO summit is chance to wean Europe off US military might - Machtwechsel by Anna Sauerbrey Cover image: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, takes part in the NATO summit last Wednesday in Spain · Image by European Union, 2022

In his recently published book, Fareed Zakaria, television host, columnist, and chair of the recently established International Strategy Forum, outlines the main pillars, trends and fault lines of a post-pandemic world. He joins Mark Leonard to discuss the political, geopolitical, and geo-economic changes to the world order. How did the world react to the war on Ukraine? What are the reactions to these reactions? Will globalisation be replaced by fragmentation? This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2022. Further reading: - Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World by Fareed Zakaria: https://buff.ly/3tZQBgO - ECFR’s and Schmidt Futures’ International Strategy Forum: https://buff.ly/3nfeU6C Bookshelf: - The Avoidable War — averting a conflict between the US and China by Kevin Rudd - Middlemarch by George Eliot - Dominion by Tom Holland

New ECFR research captures European public opinion on Russia's war against Ukraine. It reveals that Europe's remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine. This week, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR's European Power programme, Susi Dennison, turns the tables on one of the report's authors, Mark Leonard, as he becomes a guest on his own podcast. They are joined by Leonard's co-author, ECFR founding board member and chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Ivan Krastev to discuss the results of the poll and examine what this means for the European response to the war. What should European leaders do to bridge the fault lines and maintain unity? And how important is Ukraine’s EU membership application?

This week, ECFR launched its European Sovereignty Index. The index scores the EU and its member states on their contribution to European sovereignty, highlighting strengths and weaknesses, and uncovering regional divisions. Hosting this week's episode, ECFR's research director, Jeremy Shapiro, is joined by two researchers of the index – ECFR policy fellow, Pawel Zerka, and senior policy fellow and head of ECFR's European Power programme, Susi Dennison. They discuss their main findings – as well as some surprising results, trends, and developments. How will the European sovereignty effort progress and which areas need the most work? How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty? This podcast was recorded on 9 June 2022 Further reading : European Sovereignty Index https://t.co/xepxnkA16L Bookshelf: - Time Shelter by Georgi Gospodinov - This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends by Nicole Perlroth - The hundred-year war for American conservatism by Matt Continetti

Chandran Nair, CEO and founder of the Global Institute for Tomorrow (GIFT) argues in his latest book that dismantling white privilege will require deconstructing the entire superstructure of international relations. So, what is white privilege and how deeply is the idea of the superiority of white people and Western culture interwoven into international relations? How does white privilege manifest itself in current international relations issues like the Ukraine war? Together with Mark Leonard, Nair talks about the origins, realities and futures of white privilege. This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2022. Further reading - Dismantling global white privilege: Equity for a post-Western world by Chandran Nair - Chandran Nair on white privilege in international relations by Shannon Tiezzi in The Diplomat - A new imperial alliance threatens peace in Asia in by Chandran Nair in Noema Mag Bookshelf: - Last night I dreamed of peace: The diary of Dang Thuy Tram by Đặng Thùy Trâm

Three months into Russia’s war on Ukraine, social, economic, and political leaders from across the globe retreated to Davos in the Swiss alps to discuss how to set about creating a brighter future for the world. Recording from the heart of the World Economic Forum, Mark Leonard is joined this week by Yara Bayoumy, world and national security editor at the New York Times opinion section, to dissect the impulses that weaved in and out of this weekend’s discussions. What were this forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing? And what balance was there between the West and the rest? This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2022 Bookshelf: - "Our Country Friends" by Gary Shteyngart Picture (c) World Economic Forum / Benedikt von Loebell

Russia’s war on Ukraine has led to an unprecedented display of European unity. But the European Union now faces a daunting combination of migration, food, military, and energy crises. Assembling an all-star cast at ECFR’s annual staff retreat in Malaga, host Mark Leonard is joined by senior policy fellows Marie Dumoulin, director of the Wider Europe programme, Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office, and Arturo Varvelli, head of the Rome office, to discuss Europe’s solidarity on the war in Ukraine. How sustainable is European unity? What scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months? And what factors matter most to different EU member states? This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2022

German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is facing criticism for not meeting the expectations he created with his Zeitenwende speech. But how fair is this criticism? Mark Leonard ponders this question and others with some of his German colleagues: ECFR senior policy fellows Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin, and policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Task Force for Strengthening Europe against Economic Coercion, Jonathan Hackenbroich. How is Germany actually doing in turning round its security and defence policies? And what kind of change is afoot in Germany’s most beloved field, economic policy? This podcast was recorded on 11 May 2022. Further reading: - How Germany can sustain its policy revolution by Rafael Loss, Angela Mehrer: https://buff.ly/3hE5PBv - Zeitenwende: Germany as a pioneer in foreign and security policy? https://buff.ly/3sAo7K7 - The birth of a geopolitical Germany by Jonathan Hackenbroich, Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/3soxQmJ Bookshelf: - BBC Radio 4 Desert Island Discs with Fiona hill - China’s Ukraine Conundrum. Why the war necessitates a balancing act by Yan Xuetong in Foreign Affairs - SupChina podcast: Chinese international relations scholar Dingding Chen on Beijing’s position in the Russo-Ukrainian War - The deluge: The Great War, America and the remaking of the global order, 1916-1931 by Adam Tooze - Ist der Tod kein Meister aus Deutschland mehr? by Andreas Wirsching in Die Zeit

The world is currently focused on one strongman: Putin. Yet strongmen are threatening democracies across the globe. Mark Leonard is joined this week by chief foreign policy commentator at the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman, to dissect the latter's recently published book “The Age of the Strongman”. They discuss such questions as what defines a strongman, and what varieties of this curious species exist? Are there any strongwomen? And when did the age of strongmen really begin? This podcast was recorded on 28 April 2022. Further reading: The Age of the Strongman by Gideon Rachman The rise and risks of “The Age of the Strongman” “The Age of The Strongman by Gideon Rachman review – a rogues gallery of autocrats” by Simon Tisdall Bookshelf Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present by Ruth Ben-Ghiat America Second by Isaac Stone Fish

As Russia undermines democracies and reduces Ukrainian territory to a mere power play, European ideology is flourishing more than ever before. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard hosts Enrico Letta, former Prime Minister of Italy and current President of the Jacque Delors Institute, to discuss his solution to the EU’s problems: a European Confederation. Nations such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova want the security of EU membership, but how likely are they to be accepted into the union? How could a European Confederation aid greater cross-European integration? And is it a realistic alternative to the EU? This podcast was recorded on 28 April 2022. Further reading: - “A European Confederation: a common political platform for peace” by Enrico Letta - “The EU moves together on the total embargo on Moscow, says Enrico Letta” by the Observatorial - “Letta for a federal Europe” by Roberto Castaldi Bookshelf: - The Man Inside: A European Journey Through Two Crises by Marco Buti

As Russia shifts the focus of its military offensive to southern and eastern Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are moving closer to NATO membership. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard speaks to Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and current ECFR co-chair, and Alexander Stubb, former prime minister of Finland and current ECFR council member. Beyond both countries’ expressions of intent, where do they stand on NATO membership? What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries? This podcast was recorded on 21 April 2022. Further reading: - Between Russia, Sweden, and NATO: Finland’s defence of “sovereignty equality” by Hanna Ojanen - How the Russia-Ukraine crisis could change Sweden’s security policy by Mats Engström - “Whoever shows weakness, will be attacked” by Francesco Collini Bookshelf: - The Unknown Soldier by Väinö Linna - Ravenna: Capital of Empire, Crucible of Europe by Judith Herrin - The New Age of Empire by Kehinde Andrews

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face off against each other in the second round of the French presidential election on April 24. We have a good idea of what a second Macron presidency would look like, but Marine Le Pen is another story all together. How would her presidency affect Europe and the world? Jeremy Shapiro – seizing the reins of the podcast this week from a complaisant Mark Leonard – will explore this question with Agneska Bloch, a senior research assistant at a DC-based think tank, where she works on European affairs. This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2022. Further reading: All ECFR analysis on the French election: https://ecfr.eu/topic/france-2022/ Bookshelf: - East West Street by Philippe Sands - My Brilliant Friend by Elena Ferrante

Russia’s war in Ukraine has turned European defence and security policy upside down. The German Zeitenwende, the Versailles Summit in March, and the recently published Strategic Compass for Security and Defence are all testament to this rediscovered priority on European leaders’ agenda. Jana Puglierin takes over the podcast to talk with ECFR senior policy fellows Nick Witney – who served as the first chief executive of the European Defence Agency – and Gustav Gressel about the state of European defence and its future. Will it be different this time? What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded? This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2022. Further reading: - The EU’s Strategic Compass: Brand new, already obsolete by Nick Witney https://buff.ly/3wZEKkW - Out of the dark: Reinventing European defence cooperation by Gustav Gressel & Nick Witney https://buff.ly/3qidU3v Bookshelf: - East West Street by Philippe Sands - Rochan Consulting - Top 10 books about tumultuous times

Mark Leonard is joined by the head of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR visiting fellow Cinzia Bianco, professor of political science at the University of Tehran Nasser Hadian, and founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center Abdulaziz Sager to analyse current developments in Gulf energy security and the Iran nuclear deal. On location at the Doha Forum 2022, they discuss questions like: following Western energy sanctions on Russia, why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies? Is the resurrection of the Iran nuclear deal tangible? And what role do sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regional security threats such as conflict in Yemen play in such decisions? This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2022. Further reading on ecfr.eu: •Europe’s Russian energy dilemma by Cinzia Bianco, Jonathan Hackenbroich, Filip Medunic, & Pawel Zerka •Order of engagement: Assad’s visit to Abu Dhabi by Julien Barney-Dacey & Cinzia Bianco •Agreement and uncertainty: The Iran nuclear deal in a new global order by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj •Balance of power: Gulf states, Russia, and European energy security by Cinzia Bianco Bookshelf: •“Midday event: trace of blood” film by Mohammad Hossein Mahdavian •“Establish geographic inclusivity in the Security Council” by Abdulaziz Sager •“The thick of it” TV series •“A certain idea of France” by Julian Jackson

Mark Leonard is joined by Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at ECFR and Ukraine expert, and Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher and editor of the blog Ukraine World, to dissect Russia's war against Ukraine from a Ukrainian intellectual perspective. What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion? What role does Westsplaining play for Ukraine in the current context? And what do Russia’s zoopolitics mean for Ukrainian futures? This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2022. Further reading: • All ECFR Ukraine analysis: https://ecfr.eu/topic/russia-ukraine-crisis/ • Ukraine world https://ukraineworld.org/ Bookshelf: • “The last empire” by Serhii Plokhy • "Explaining Ukraine" podcast: https://buff.ly/3uwd9W2 • Ukraine in Histories and Stories, essays by Ukrainian intellectuals: https://buff.ly/3DbTEGa If you want to support Ukraine World, you can become a patron and donate via patreon.com/ukraineworld!

Mark Leonard is joined by Marie Dumoulin, head of our Wider Europe programme, and ECFR’s research director, Jeremy Shapiro, to talk yet again about the ongoing war in Ukraine and some possible different scenarios for its resolution. Does this war actually mean – as per one US strategist – a complete collapse of NATO member states’ policy? How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West? This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2022. Further reading: All ECFR Ukraine analysis https://ecfr.eu/topic/russia-ukraine-crisis/ Bookshelf: “The end of diplomacy? Seven glimpses of the new normal by Andrey Kortunov https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/the-end-of-diplomacy-seven-glimpses-of-the-new-normal/ “Death and the penguin” by Andrey Kurkov https://www.npr.org/2012/04/24/150972348/death-and-the-penguin-captures-post-soviet-reality?t=1647353925557

Mark Leonard and senior policy fellow and head of ECFR´s Paris Office, Tara Varma, sat down in Paris to talk about how Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine is affecting France and the French presidential race. In the shadow of the Eiffel Tower and facing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, they discussed such questions as: what kind of role did foreign policy play in the election campaigns before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what role is it playing now? Have we seen candidates change their positions on Russia and Putin? And will Emmanuel Macron’s approach to European politics and defence policy help him win another term as president? This podcast was recorded on 9 March 2022. Further reading: • EU defence facing Russia: Eastern European security after the invasion of Ukraine by Kristi Raik: https://buff.ly/3pxKLB8 • How Russia’s war on Ukraine is shaping the French presidential race by Mathilde Ciulla and Amandine Drouet: https://buff.ly/3suVZZ0 • A certain idea of Europe: How the next French president can lead by Susi Dennison and Tara Varma: https://buff.ly/3sSqybg Bookshelf: • “Anéantir“ by Michel Houellebecq

In this week’s early podcast, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR senior policy fellow Kadri Liik and the head of ECFR’s Asia programme Janka Oertel to talk about how the Ukraine war is affecting Sino-Russian relations. How is Russia's attack on Ukraine perceived in China? Will Russia and China be joining forces in an ‘alliance of autocracies’? What does Russian and Chinese policymakers planning look like now - and what should Europeans do? This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2022. Further reading: Russia’s escalation in Ukraine: Views from Asia by Frédéric Grare, Janka Oertel & Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp Games changer: How China is rewriting global rules and Russia is playing along by Janka Oertel All other ECFR Ukraine analysis: https://ecfr.eu/topic/russia-ukraine-crisis/

War in Ukraine As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard sat down with Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and senior policy fellows Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik – as well as Jonathan Hackenbroich, head of ECFR’s Task Force for Strengthening Europe against Economic Coercion – to talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground: What does the situation look like militarily? And what reactions from the West have we seen so far? Are economic sanctions enough to react to Putin’s war? This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2022.

Live from the Munich Security Conference (MSC)! Mark Leonard huddled together with editorial director for Le Monde and ECFR board and Council Member Sylvie Kauffmann and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office in one of the many rooms of the Bayerischer Hof to talk about the West’s thinking and reaction to the geopolitical challenges and battles of today: In the spotlight is of course the question about Ukraine. Has the West really started to “unlearn helplessness” that defined the Western countries’ policy responses? Did the MSC mark the revival of a forceful and united transatlantic alliance, ready to move away from affirmative words to assertive actions? This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2022. Further reading: Munich Security Conference Report https://securityconference.org/publikationen/munich-security-report-2022/

This week, ECFR senior policy fellow, Susi Dennison, takes over the podcast to talk about international cooperation on global health. As many European countries are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel after yet another hard winter struggling with covid-19, attention is refocusing on global inequity around tackling the pandemic. What does effective multilateral cooperation on global health and pandemic preparedness look like in a growing geopolitically competitive world? And what needs to change in Europe’s approach to cooperation in this area with the African Union and African states? ECFR Council Member Gunilla Carlsson – vice-chair of the Global Fund Strategy Committee, former deputy director of UNAIDS, and former Swedish minister for international development cooperation – and ECFR senior policy fellow Anthony Dworkin share their insights and recommendations from ECFR's latest report on this topic. This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2022. Further reading: The Power Atlas, Health chapter by Anthony Dworkin: https://buff.ly/3lSfyXp Health of Nations: How Europe can fight future pandemics by Anthony Dworkin: https://buff.ly/3LyS3xI Bookshelf: “Beloved” by Toni Morrison “The Global Fund Report” “Oxford Guide to Plain English” “The uncounted” by Sara L.M. Davis

In this episode, we reverse the usual roles: today’s host is ECFR’s Research Director Jeremy Shapiro and Mark Leonard tries out the role of guest. They discuss the surprising findings of ECFR’s latest public opinion poll on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In recent weeks, many commentators, including this podcast’s interim host, have focused on Europe’s divisions and lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. But Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev demonstrate that there exists a surprising consensus and even resolve within the European public when it comes to the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Together, Jeremy and Mark discuss the report’s key conclusions and how European policymakers might adjust their policies to reflect the public mood it reveals. This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2022. Further Reading: The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/3uHq60V Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis by Jeremy Shapiro: https://t.co/o7vYzXo2sq Bookshelf: After Life by Ricky Gervais (TV Series) Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson © Image byVolodymyr Tarasov / Avalon / Photoshot / Picture Alliance

Humanitarian crises in places like Afghanistan, Yemen or Ethiopia are not only a reflection of internal turmoil – but mirror a much grander development: system failure. In today’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by David Miliband, president and chief executive officer of the International Rescue Committee and a former UK Foreign Secretary. Together, they discuss his model describing the four levels of system failure: what are the drivers behind it and what must be done in order to confront and counter the current developments? A solution to the system failure, they argue, should be conceptualised as a cross-sectorial endeavour beyond the humanitarian subdivision. This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2022. Further reading: David A. Morse Lecture at the Council on Foreign Relations by President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee David Miliband: https://buff.ly/34yc9ap Bookshelf: Cricketing Lives: A Characterful History from Pitch to Page by Richard H. Thomas Mission Economy: A Moonshot Guide to Changing Capitalism by Mariana Mazzucato Empireland: How Imperialism Has Shaped Modern Britain by Sathnam Sanghera

Since the holiday season, we have brought to you a special mini-series looking at how the things that keep us connected – like trade, tech, the internet, and migration – can also tear us apart. But rather than despairing at the state of the world, the geopolitics, and ongoing superpower battles, Mark Leonard is joined by a number of high-level thinkers in this mini-series in order to find strategies for shaping and surviving our new reality. We call it The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists. Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five special episodes with guests including today’s guests: Anu Bradford, Thomas Wright, and Feng Zhang. We hope you find some healing! For past episodes in this series, check them out here: buff.ly/3ecRbiO _____________ On today’s couch, we gathered Anu Bradford, Henry L. Moses Professor of Law and International Organizations at Columbia Law School; Thomas Wright, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on the US and Europe at Brookings; and Feng Zhang, professor of international relations and executive dean of the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology. Together with Mark Leonard, they discuss the three empires of connectivity – the US as a gate-keeping power, the EU as rule-making power, and China as a relational power. The big question in this group therapy session is: How can those three powers have a peaceful and constructive relationship with each other? Further reading: • “Brussel effect” by Anu Bradford • “ Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order”by Thomas Wright • “The rise of Chinese exceptionalism in international relations” by Feng Zhang

Diplomatic talks about the Russia – Ukraine crisis are increasingly icy. While Europeans continue to gnash their teeth over a patchy security architecture, US president Biden and the Russian president Putin are struggling to come to a peaceful conclusion in their bilateral negotiations. It seems Europeans are caught between the prospect of a “new Yalta” or a full-scale war on the European continent that could easily escalate out of control. To discuss these happenings, Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, Kadri Liik, ECFR senior policy fellow at ECFR and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR's research director and in-house US expert. This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2022. Bookshelf La France dans le bouleversement du monde by Michel Duclos Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson Хельсинкский процесс (The Helsinki Process) by Andrei Zagorski

Since the holiday season we have brought to you a special mini-series looking at how the things that keep us connected – like trade, tech, the internet, and migration – can also tear us apart. But rather than despairing at the state of the world, the geopolitics and ongoing superpower battles, Mark Leonard is joined by a number of high-level thinkers in this mini-series in order to find strategies for shaping and surviving our new reality. We call it The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists.    Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five special episodes with guests including today’s Anne-Marie Slaughter, Marietje Schaake, and Anne Marie Slaughter. We hope you find some healing! For past episodes in this series, check them out here: buff.ly/3ecRbiO _____________ Today Mark is joined by Anne-Marie Slaughter, chief executive of the think-tank New America. Previously, she was dean of Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and director of policy planning in the US State Department. Together, Mark and Anne-Marie go through the five steps of self-help for internationalists and discuss the reconceptualisation of globalisation while focusing on different players that form the hidden wiring of much of our everyday lives: Why are our societies are increasingly divided over identity, equality, and history? What effect does connectivity have on societies? Further Reading: - Renewal: From Crisis to Transformation in Our Lives, Work, and Politics by Anne-Marie Slaughter - The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World by Anne-Marie Slaughter

Traditions die hard, or so they say. And thus, we are especially excited to continue one of our most popular traditions: Predicting ten foreign policy trends for 2022. This week, host Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at ECFR, are looking into their crystal balls to foretell the forces and events that will shape the upcoming year. They also convened an impartial jury consisting entirely of themselves to rate last year’s predictions. It concluded that Mark and Jeremy set a new high score of 8/10 points in 2021. Can they outdo themselves with their 2022 projections? Or do you think you have better predictions? Send us an email or tweet them at us! This podcast was recorded on 4 January 2022. Further reading: https://ecfr.eu/article/2022-the-road-to-recovery-again/ Bookshelf: “The Lincoln Highway” by Amor Towles “A Gentleman in Moscow” by Amor Towles “Born in Blackness” by Howard W. French

Over the holiday season, we are bringing you a special mini-series looking at how the things that keep us connected – like trade, tech, the internet, and migration – can also tear us apart. But rather than despairing at the state of the world, the geopolitics and ongoing superpower battles, Mark Leonard is joined by a number of high-level thinkers in this mini-series in order to find strategies for shaping and surviving our new reality. We call it The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists. Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five special episodes with guests including today’s Dan Drezner, Marietje Schaake, and Anne Marie Slaughter. We hope you find some healing! For past episodes in this series, check them out here: https://buff.ly/3ecRbiO _____________ Today on the couch is Dan Drezner, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and non-resident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Together with Mark Leonard, they go through the five steps of self-help for internationalists and discuss how trade and financial relations are increasingly weaponised by some countries in order to enhance their geopolitical power and economic gain. Further reading: •“The United States of Sanctions. The Use and Abuse of Economic Coercion” by Daniel W. Drezner in Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021 • “All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes” by Daniel W. Drezner • “The System Worked: How the World Stopped Another Great Depression” by Daniel W. Drezner

Over the holiday season we are bringing you a special mini-series looking at how the things that keep us connected – like trade, tech, the internet and migration – can also tear us apart. But rather than despairing at the state of the world, the geopolitics and ongoing superpower battles, Mark Leonard is joined by a number of high-level thinkers in this mini-series in order to find strategies for shaping and surviving our new reality. We call it The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists. Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five episodes with guests including today’s Parag Khanna, Thomas Wright, and Anne Marie Slaughter. We hope you find some healing! _____________ Next up on the couch is Parag Khanna, founder and managing partner of FutureMap, a data and scenario-based strategic advisory firm and best-selling author. He has recently published the book ”Move: the forces uprooting us” in which he looks at how mass migration will reshape the world. Together with Mark Leonard, they go through the five steps of self-help for internationalists and discuss the weaponisation of migration which we see in today’s world more and more.

Over the holiday season, we are bringing you a special mini-series looking at how the things that keep us connected – like trade, tech, the internet and migration – can also tear us apart. But rather than despairing at the state of the world, the geopolitics and ongoing superpower battles, Mark Leonard is joined by a number of high-level thinkers in this mini-series in order to find strategies for shaping and surviving our new reality. We call it The Age of Unpeace: Therapy for internationalists. Join us on this journey to a more therapeutic approach to international relations. The mini-series brings you five episodes with guests including today’s Marietje Schaake, Thomas Wright, and Anne Marie Slaughter. We hope you find some healing! _____________ First up on the couch is Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow at Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Together with Mark Leonard, they go through the five steps of self-help for internationalists and discuss how the internet has gone from being seen as the ultimate unifier of a global village to being ‘the perfect weapon’.

In this episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by POLITICO Europe's Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini to discuss his plans for POLITICO. They talk about life in Brussels, breaking news in Asia, how to find a good story and what makes good reporting. Also, many of the big impetuses that have changed Europe in the past came from the outside, and likely in the future, mainly from Asia: what does Anderlini think about China's rise and security issues coming from Asia think? This podcast was recorded on 10 December 2021. Further reading • “Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion” by Jonathan Hackenbroich & Pawel Zerka: https://buff.ly/3zTgkZo Bookshelf • “The guns of August” by Barbara W. Tuchman • “Red Roulette: An insider's story of wealth, power, corruption, and vengeance in today's China” by Desmond Shum

After more than a decade of death and destruction – and despite a string of international efforts to end his regime - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains in power. Meanwhile, the country faces deteriorating economic and humanitarian crises, with over 90% of its population currently living below the poverty line. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR Council Member Bassma Kodmani who is also a member of the opposition delegation for peace negotiations and a member of the Constitutional Committee for Syria, Ralph Haddad Coordinator of Advocacy & Research at the Syrian NGO Basmeh & Zeitooneh for Relief and Development, and Julien Barnes-Dacey, head of ECFR’s MENA programme. Together, they analyse the changing dynamics in the ‘struggle for Syria’: What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of the country? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in Syria? This podcast was recorded on 29 November 2021. Further reading: -" A decade of death and ruin: How Europe can create breathing space in Syria" by Julien Barnes-Dacey https://buff.ly/3ePDHLI Bookshelf: - "How the Assad Regime Systematically Diverts Tens of Millions in Aid" by Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, CSIS - "Black Spartacus: The Epic Life of Toussaint Louverture" by Sudhir Hazareesingh - "Without" by Younis Alakhzami

On Wednesday afternoon, the German Social Democrats, the FDP and the Greens presented their coalition agreement. The long-awaited deal sets out the roadmap for the “traffic light” government for the upcoming four years led by Olaf Scholz (SPD). In this episode, Mark Leonard and ECFR senior policy fellows Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin take a deep dive into the 170+ page-long document: what does it say about foreign policy issues, China, defence and security? What is in there about the future of Europe? And how do we see the transatlantic relationship developing in the new coalition? This podcast was recorded on 24 November 2021 Further reading: Coalition treaty [in DE]: https://buff.ly/2ZpvyIt Germany announces coalition agreement | DW News Live: https://buff.ly/3cOmBeC What’s in the German coalition deal for Europe (and the UK) | Politico: https://buff.ly/3cQX6te picture (c) Paul Lovis Wagner | Campact

At the beginning of this week, NATO warned about an ‘unusual’ concentration of Russian forces close to the Ukraine border. So far, the Kremlin has dismissed the warning as “alarmist” while the US alerted allies about the possibility of Moscow preparing for a possible invasion of Ukraine. Mark Leonard is joined by Marie Dumoulin the new director of our Wider Europe programme, in her first week on the job, and ECFR Senior policy fellows Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik to talk about the Russian military built up on Ukraine´s borders: how serious is the situation? And what should - and should not NATO do about it? This podcast has been recorded 17 November 2021. Further reading: Russia’s military movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO by Gustav Gressel https://ecfr.eu/article/russias-military-movements-what-they-could-mean-for-ukraine-europe-and-nato/ Bookshelf: • “Ukraine: Putin’s unfinished business” by Eugen Rumer & Andrew Weiss • “Russia in Global Affairs“, Volume 19, No. 3, Jul-Sept 2021 • “Practical political science. A guide to getting in touch with reality” by Ekaterina Schulmann [in RU] Picture © picture alliance / AA | Ukrainian Presidency / Handout

In the recent months, the EU and especially Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, have all seen an increasing number of people trying to enter their countries from Belarus. An estimated 2,000 migrants are said to be stranded at the Belarus border with Poland at the moment. But how did we get here? Host Mark Leonard talks to ECFR policy fellow Pawel Zerka and visiting fellow Pavel Slunkin about the situation on the ground. Moreover, we asked Kelly Greenhill, 2020-21 Leverhulme Trust visiting professor at SOAS, to explain what coercive engineered migration is and how successful it is. Is Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenka’s act of revenge for EU sanctions and criticism working? What would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics? This podcast was recorded on 10 November 2021. Further reading: • "No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus" by Gustav Gressel, Joanna Hosa & Pavel Slunkin: https://buff.ly/3EYVidF • "How half-hearted sanctions put the future of Belarus at risk" by Pawel Zerka: https://buff.ly/3imsSBH Bookshelf: • "Madam Secretary" by Madeleine Albright • "Belarusians’ views on the political crisis" by Chatham House • "EU sanctions on Belarus as an effective policy tool" by Anders Åslund & Jan Hagemeier in Belarus Insight 02/2021 • "On consolation: finding solace in dark times" by Michael Ignatieff Photo © picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Leonid Shcheglov

Negotiations of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) are underway in Glasgow. This week, host Mark Leonard speaks with Lykke Friis, ECFR board member and director of the Danish Think Tank Europa and former minister for climate and energy of Denmark; Susi Dennison, head of ECFR’s European power programme; and Alex Clark, researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford and ECFR visiting fellow. Together, they analyse the prospects of success at COP26 and particularly what role the European Union can and should play. Is the EU in a position to deliver a green grand bargain, or is its role as peripheral now as it was at COP15? This podcast was recorded on 3 November 2021. Further reading; Climate of cooperation: How the EU can help deliver a green grand bargain by Alex Clark, Susi Dennison, and Mats Engström: https://buff.ly/3BrI9HP Last chance for Global Climate Leadership in Glasgow? Event with Lykke Friis, Susi Dennison, Dan Joergensen, and Lars Aagaard: https://buff.ly/3bOmRd5

This week, Mark Leonard answers your most burning questions about his newly released book, “The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict”. Hosted by ECFR’s head of communications, Ana Ramic, the special Ask Me Anything episode features Mark responding to loyal podcast listeners Zebulon Carlander, Robert Cooper, Teresa Gouveia, Antonio Notario, Jonas Parello-Plesner, Timi Okoya, and Patrycja Sasnal. This episode was recorded on 22 October 2021 **and contains spoilers**! Thanks to everybody who submitted questions! Listen to a sneak-peak: https://soundcloud.com/ecfr/sneak-peek-age-of-unpeace-mark-leonard Learn more about “The Age of Unpeace”: • Podcast with Mark Leonard & Janka Oertel: https://soundcloud.com/ecfr/age-of-unpeace • "Welcome to the age of unpeace" by Mark Leonard in Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/welcome-to-the-age-of-unpeace-geopolitics-conflict/ Get the book here: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/144/1443237/the-age-of-unpeace/9781787634657.html#:~:text=The%20%22age%20of%20unpeace%22%20%5B,his%20own%20beliefs%20have%20evolved.

Last week, French president Emmanuel Marcon presented a massive investment plan – “France 2030”. The roadmap sketches out France’s digital and green transformation and is meant to set up the country – as well as Europe – for growth and success ahead of the French EU Council presidency. But is this strategy only part of electoral campaigning, as critics say? Or does “France 2030” echo bigger plans which the EU has already set out for the bloc? Host Mark Leonard is in our Paris office talking to office head and ECFR policy fellow Tara Varma: What are Macron’s plans for the EU Council presidency in 2022 and beyond? Can France fill the void that Germany leaves post-Merkel while forming a new government, and how? This podcast was recorded on 19 October 2021. Further reading: - The lonely leader: The origins of France’s strategy for EU foreign policy” by Tara Varma and Mathilde Ciulla: https://ecfr.eu/article/the-lonely-leader-the-origins-of-frances-strategy-for-eu-foreign-policy/ Bookshelf: - Peut-on changer de logique?, Philosophe Magazine No. 153 - October 2021

A major ruling of Poland’s Constitutional Court challenging the primacy of EU law has escalated Warsaw’s legal and political dispute with Brussels and unleashed serious concerns of a ‘Polexit.’ In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard speaks with Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, about the implications of the ruling for Poland as well as for the European Union. Should the EU fear ‘Polexit’? What steps can the EU take to defend its legal order and protect the authority of the Court of Justice of the European Union? This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2021. Further reading: Forget Polexit – the EU must defend the CJEU by Piotr Buras on Balkan Insight: https://buff.ly/3FA2Ftj Bookshelf: - Aftershocks: Pandemic politics and the end of the old international order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright - Angela Merkel: Die Kanzlerin und ihre Zeit by Ralph Bollmann - The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict by Mark Leonard

As the US looks to disentangle itself from various conflicts globally, it leaves behind power vacuums. In the MENA region, various regional – and global - powers are vying to fill the void. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by three guests directly from ECFR’s MENA Forum in Rome: Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, professor of political science in the UAE; Alia Moubayed, MENA chief economist for Jefferies; and Julien Barnes-Dacey, head of ECFR’s MENA programme. Together, they analyse the changing geopolitical and regional dynamics in the MENA region: Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement? And what does this mean for Europe’s future role in the region? This podcast was recorded on 5 October 2021. Further reading: - Iraq’s parliamentary election will produce more of the same by Nussaibah Younis: https://buff.ly/3A5xORd - Europe’s post-Afghanistan to-do list by Arancha Gonzalez Laya: https://buff.ly/3AHJyuC - Autonomous in Afghanistan: How the Europeans could have stayed after US withdrawal by Mary Kaldor: https://buff.ly/3CaB0wi Bookshelf: Black Spartacus: The Epic Life of Toussaint Louverture by Sudhir Hazaareesingh After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies by Christopher Davidson Beautiful World, Where Are You by Sally Rooney

German election results are in, and they mark a new era for Germany. On 26 September, Germans headed to the polls to vote in one of the most unpredictable elections since Angela Merkel took office over a decade and a half ago. Now, Germany will have to endure weeks – or possibly months – of fraught coalition talks before a new government can be formed. In this week’s World in 30 Minutes episode, host Mark Leonard talks with Jeremy Cliffe, international editor of the New Statesman, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin Office, Lykke Friis, ECFR co-chair and Director of the Danish Think Tank Europa, and Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director of Le Monde, about the fragmented election result and its implications for Europe. What coalition – the ‘traffic light’, ‘Jamaica’ or ‘grand’ – is most likely? How are the results being perceived throughout Europe? And what do they mean for the future of our continent? This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2021. Bookshelf: -How Olaf Scholz and the SPD could lead Germany’s next government by Jeremy Cliffe -The Fateful Chancellor: What the end of the Merkel era means for the world by Jeremy Cliffe - Speak, Silence: In Search of WG Sebald by Caroline Angier - Pandemonium: Europe’s COVID Crisis by Luuk van Middelaar - Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict by Mark Leonard - The Vaccine by Joe Miller with Dr. Özlem Türeci and Dr. Ugur Sahin - Le Premier XXIe siècle by Jean-Marie Guehenno - Crime and persuade by Peter Baldwin

The announcement of the new Indo-Pacific security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States - dubbed ‘AUKUS’ - has led to the biggest crisis in transatlantic relations since the Iraq war in 2003. In this week’s podcast, host Mark Leonard talks with Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’ Asia programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Tara Varma, head of ECFR’s Paris office, about the new security pact and its implications for Europe. What does it mean for the future of transatlantic relations? And what lessons can be drawn for European strategic autonomy and European sovereignty? This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2021. Further reading: - What Europeans think about the US-China cold war by Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/3hT6Iqa - After AUKUS: The uncertain future of American and European cooperation in the Indo-Pacific by Tara Varma: https://buff.ly/3CC3I9S - AUKUS: After the sugar rush by Nick Witney: https://buff.ly/3zyho3z Bookshelf: - NüVoices - Podcast - Born a Crime by Trevor Noah: - Stalin an Appraisal of the Man His Influence by Leon Trotsky

Get a sneak peek into Mark Leonard's latest book "The Age of Unpeace - How Connectivity Causes Conflict", read by the author himself. Additionally, in October we will have a special “ask me anything” episode with Mark Leonard and ask all of you to send in your burning questions about the book to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu">mark.leonard@ecfr.eu which will then be answered in the forthcoming episode. All those who submit questions will be eligible to win a free signed book from Mark, so start emailing! We are happy to receive your questions in written or audio (voice-memo) form.

In his newly released book “The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict” ECFR director Mark Leonard explains how many of the forces that we thought would bring us together have ended up driving us apart. Trade, technology, the internet, and travel were once promised to create a global village but have instead created an era of “unpeace”, where the distinctions between war and peace are breaking down. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard becomes the guest of his own podcast to talk with ECFR’s Asia programme director Janka Oertel about the main themes of his book and particularly how China’s growing role in this interconnected world poses threats for Europe. This podcast was recorded on 16 September 2021. Further reading: Age of Unpeace by Mark Leonard “The Afghan tragedy and the age of unpeace” by Mark Leonard Bookshelf: “Doom” by Neil Ferguson “Shutdown. How Covid Shook the World’s Economy” by Adam Tooze Move by Parag Khanna “Renewal: From crisis to transformation in our lives, work, and politics” by Anne Marie Slaughter “China unbound: a new world disorder” by Joanna Chiu

The collapse of Afghan government forces and the rapid seizure of power by the Taliban has unleashed a series of intense debates about the implications for Europe. How will the Western withdrawal impact on the state of European defence and military capabilities? Are we likely to see a shift in Europe’s relationship with other powers - such as Turkey, China, and the United States? In this week’s podcast, host Mark Leonard talks with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and senior policy fellows Asli Aydintaşbaş and Andrew Small about what the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan means for Europe and the future of transatlantic relations. This podcast was recorded on 8 September 2021. Further Reading: - “The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe” by ECFR policy experts: https://buff.ly/3kqkOjh - “The Afghan tragedy and the age of unpeace” by Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/3gXZTmS Bookshelf: "Age of Unpeace" by Mark Leonard https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/144/1443237/the-age-of-unpeace/9781787634657.html - "Faust’s Metropolis - A History of Berlin" by Alexandra Richie - “Mr. Five Per Cent” by Jonathan Conlin - “Red Roulette" by Desmond Shum

Every Friday, Mark Leonard invites top-level speakers from across the EU and beyond to debate Europe’s role in the world. We feature and discuss everything from our own research at ECFR to practical pan-European policy – and news from Africa, Asia, Middle East and North Africa, Wider Europe and our own European Power programme. So basically, we bring you the world – in 30 minutes.

With Germany’s federal elections rapidly approaching, chancellor Angela Merkel is set to depart the political stage. What will the foreign policy of her party, the CDU, look like when she’s gone? In this week’s podcast, host Mark Leonard talks to ECFR senior policy fellow Ulrike Franke and Andreas Nick, a CDU member of the German Bundestag. How would a chancellor Armin Laschet approach China, Russia, and defence? And what exactly sets the CDU’s foreign policy apart from those of the Social Democrats or the Greens? This podcast was recorded on 1 September 2021. Further Reading: ECFR German Election 360 https://ecfr.eu/topic/german-election-2021/ Bookshelf: “Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict” by Mark Leonard https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/144/1443237/the-age-of-unpeace/9781787634657.html “Has China Won?” by Kishore Mahbubani https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/ “From Cold War to Hot Peace” by Michael McFaul https://fsi.stanford.edu/content/cold-war-hot-peace “Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy” by Brendan Simms https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/2013/04/reviewed-europe-struggle-supremacy-brendan-simms German party election platforms: https://www.aicgs.org/2021/07/a-guide-german-party-election-platforms-2021/

Ukraine and the EU recently opened a new chapter in their strategic relationship by signing a memorandum of understanding for closer cooperation in raw materials, green and digital technologies. Making Ukraine part of the European value chain is of strategic importance, but where does the country stand on the recent US-German deal on Nord Stream 2? In this week’s episode, guest host Joanna Hosa, deputy director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme talks with Svitlana Zalishchuk, Deputy Prime-Minister Foreign Policy Advisor and former Member of Parliament in Ukraine and ECFR senior policy fellow Andrew Wilson about Ukraine, its domestic and international outlook and what the EU can and should do to support Ukrainian sovereignty. This podcast was recorded on 29 July 2021. Further reading: “Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs” by Andrew Wilson https://ecfr.eu/publication/faltering-fightback-zelenskys-piecemeal-campaign-against-ukraines-oligarchs/ Bookshelf: “Civilisations” by Laurent Binet https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/apr/29/civilisations-by-laurent-binet-review-counterfactual-hi-jinks “American Oligarchs: The Kushners, the Trumps, and the marriage of money and power” by Andrea Bernstein https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/12/american-oligarchs-review-donald-trump-jared-kushner-andrea-bernstein “No Room for small dreams: Courage, imagination, and the making of modern Israel” by Shimon Peres https://www.france24.com/en/20170921-peres-autobiography “Now we have your attention: The new politics of the people” by Jack Shenker https://www.redpepper.org.uk/review-now-we-have-your-attention-the-new-politics-of-the-people-by-jack-shenker/

The EU is often described as a “regulatory superpower” benefitting from the so-called “Brussels effect.” But is the bloc also able to set its own rules and standards when it comes to new technologies, and let the rest of the world adapt? This week, host Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR senior policy fellows Ulrike Franke and Jose Torreblanca, as well as Marietje Schaake, international director of policy at Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center. How ready are Europeans to prevail in a world of fierce geopolitical tech competition? And what role does Europe play in the Sino American competition? This podcast was recorded on 16 July 2021. Further reading: · “Geo-tech politics: Why technology shapes European power” by Ulrike Franke & José Ignacio Torreblanca https://ecfr.eu/publication/geo-tech-politics-why-technology-shapes-european-power/ · “Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry” by Carla Hobbs (ed.) https://ecfr.eu/publication/europe_digital_sovereignty_rulemaker_superpower_age_us_china_rivalry/ Bookshelf · “I, Warbot: The dawn of artificially intelligent conflict” by Kenneth Payne · “Walden” by Henry David Thoreau · “Mistrust: Why losing faith in institutions provides the tools to transform them” by Ethan Zuckerman

With Angela Merkel stepping down as Chancellor, the next German federal elections scheduled for this September promise to mark a turning point for Germany. Foreign policy issues promise to be a crucial part of the election campaign. In this week’s podcast, host Mark Leonard talks to Niels Annen, Minister of State in the German Federal Foreign Office and member of the Bundestag for the SPD to find out what a social-democratic foreign policy looks like. What would SPD foreign policy look like unbound by the grand coalition with Merkel’s Christian Democrats? What are social democratic policy ideas when it comes to China, Russia or European security and defence? And how deep are the divides between the SPD’s foreign policy and that of the parties they’re running against? This podcast was recorded on 15 July 2021. Further Reading: - ECFR German Election 360: https://buff.ly/3gJNvr2 - A foreign policy for a Green Germany: https://buff.ly/3vxdTcd Bookshelf: - “The Arab of the Future” by Riad Sattouf

In June this year, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the end of Operation Barkhane – a military offensive launched in 2013 against Islamist militants in the Sahel. France has determined, he said, it could no longer maintain a “constant presence” in West Africa. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard discusses European interests in the region and what might change after France’s Africa policy shift, together with Emanuela Del Re, former Italian deputy foreign minister and the new EU special representative for the Sahel; Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director, lead writer, and columnist for Le Monde; as well as ECFR’s Andrew Lebovich. What does the end of Operation Barkhane in its current form mean for the Sahel? What could further European and international engagement in the region look like? This podcast was recorded on 7 July 2021. Further reading: • “After Barkhane: What France’s military drawdown means for the Sahel” by Andrew Lebovich: https://t.co/xxZ11TiM24 Bookshelf • ”La Guerre de vingt ans. Djihadisme et contre-terrorisme au XXIe siècle” by Marc Hecker & Elie Tenenbaum • “Jihadists of North Africa and the Sahel” by Alexander Thurston • “Être etudiant au Mali: chroniques d'une vie d'étudiant” by Boubacar Sangaré • “Moral Letters to Lucilius“ by Seneca •“From Empires to NGOs in the West African Sahel. The Road to Nongovernmentality” by Gregory Mann • “Half of a Yellow Sun” by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie • “L'Islâm in Europa: riflessioni di un imâm italiano “ by Yahya Sergio Yahe Pallavicini

Globalisation and economic interdependence are increasingly weaponised by various state actors. Europe faces ever greater threats of economic blackmail, sanctions against its lawmakers, and consumer boycotts of its companies. Later this year, the European Commission will launch the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a tool that could enable the EU to protect citizens and businesses by countering economic blackmail from China, Russia, and Turkey – and even the US. In what circumstances could such a tool be triggered? What kind of countermeasures could protect Europe, keep markets open and support a functional global trade order? And how can such a tool be both credible and effective? To find out, host Mark Leonard talks to policy fellows Jonathan Hackenbroich and Pawel Zerka, who worked with the ECFR Task Force for Protecting Europe from Economic Coercion on our latest publication: https://buff.ly/3zTgkZo This podcast was recorded on 1 July 2021. Further Reading: "Xi, Merkel phone call ‘timely to stabilise ties’" in Global Times "Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion" by Jonathan Hackenbroich, Janka Oertel, Philipp Sandner & Pawel Zerka: https://buff.ly/37FRvEQ Bookshelf: - An account of the life of Dick Leonard, who passed away this week, written by his son Mark Leonard: https://www.facebook.com/markhleonard/posts/10159900328587642 - "Learning Empire: Globalization and the German Quest for World Status 1875-1919" by Erik Grimmer Solem - "The passions and the interests: Political arguments for capitalism before its triumph” by Albert O. Hirschman

After an election which saw the lowest turnout and highest number of spoiled ballots in the history of the Islamic Republic, the ultraconservative regime veteran Ebrahim Raisi was elected as the newest president of Iran. Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani? Could unified hardliner control of Iran paradoxically lead to a more durable nuclear deal and greater dialogue with regional adversaries such as Saudi Arabia? Will Raisi’s own human rights record prove a barrier to talks with Western powers? To find out, this week’s host Anthony Dworkin, senior research fellow and acting research director at ECFR, talks to Narges Bajoghli, assistant professor of Middle East Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation and visiting fellow at ECFR, and Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR´s MENA programme. This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2021. Further Reading: Council of despair: Iran’s uncompetitive presidential election https://ecfr.eu/article/council-of-despair-irans-uncompetitive-presidential-election/ A familiar victory: Iran’s divides under a new president https://ecfr.eu/article/a-familiar-victory-irans-divides-under-a-new-president/ Four steps to support Europe-Iran trade under a revived JCPOA https://ecfr.eu/article/four-steps-to-support-europe-iran-trade-under-a-revived-jcpoa/ Bookshelf: Syria and the Neutrality Trap: The Dilemmas of Delivering Humanitarian Aid through Violent Regimes by Carsten Wieland wieland.com/books.html">http://www.carsten-wieland.com/books.html Television and the Afghan Culture Wars: Brought to You by Foreigners, Warlords, and Activists by Wazhmah Osman https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/catalog/29bgf5br9780252043550.html Christ Stopped at Eboli by Carlo Levi https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/christ-stopped-at-eboli-1945-by-carlo-levi-a-remarkable-memoir-1.4551169

The meeting between US president Biden and the Turkish president Erdogan, as well as the upcoming European Council Summit on Turkey come at a critical moment in the EU-US-Turkey relationship. After years of heightened tensions, there appears to have been a thawing in relations since the beginning of this year. The renewed focus on climate policy by the EU, however, makes many aspects of this relationship uncertain. Are carbon border taxes a threat to Turkish trade? How can Turkey and the EU cooperate on green energy? To find out, host Susi Dennison, director of ECFR´s European Power programme, talks to Asli Aydıntaşbaş, senior policy fellow at ECFR and in-house expert on Turkey, and Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at Bruegel focusing on European Union climate and energy policy. They discuss the outcomes of the Biden-Erdogan summit and the prospects for the EU-Turkey relationship, particularly in relation to the EU’s climate policies. This podcast was recorded on 17 June 2021. Further Reading: - "Europe’s Green Moment: How to meet the climate challenge" by Susi Dennison, Rafael Loss and Jenny Söderström: https://buff.ly/3v48Lw4 - "The geopolitics of the European Green Deal" by Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff: https://buff.ly/3tpyKxG Bookshelf: - "Catherine the Great: Portrait of a Woman" by Robert K. Massie - "The New Climate War" by Michael E. Mann

Joe Biden described his mission for his trip to Europe this week as “realizing America’s renewed commitment to (its) allies and partners.” But what does this mean in practice? How well does the transatlantic alliance still fit with the way that Europe and the United States now see their goals in foreign policy? To find out, host Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at ECFR, talks to Susi Dennison, director of ECFR´s European Power Program, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR´s Berlin office, as well as Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR´s research director. They discuss what Europe and the US want from this week’s summit meetings and look at some of the striking results of ECFR’s latest public opinion poll across 12 European countries. Once the coronavirus crisis is over, how do Europeans see the EU’s role in the world? This podcast was recorded on 9 June 2021. Further reading: - Crisis of confidence: How Europeans see their place in the world by Jana Puglierin & Susi Dennison: https://buff.ly/2RxZFt9 Bookshelf: - "How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic" by Jana Puglierin & Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/2RzAxSO - "Ali and Nino" by Kurban Said - "The Orientalist: Solving the Mystery of a Strange and Dangerous Life" by Tom Reiss - "Why the Germans Do it Better: Notes from a Grown-Up Country" by John Kampfner - "Histoire de la laïcité en France" by Jean Baubérot Photo: picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Markus Schreiber ©

The little-known but long-running conflict in Western Sahara made it into the headlines in Europe recently, when Morocco weaponised migration in Ceuta to advance its territorial claim. Listen as host Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the MENA programme at ECFR discusses the issue with Irene Fernandez-Molina, senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of Exeter and expert on frozen conflicts, Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR´s Madrid office, as well as Jacob Mundy, visiting fellow at ECFR and an associate professor in Peace and Conflict Studies and Middle Eastern, and Islamic Studies programs at Colgate University in Hamilton, New York. Together they try to find out what the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain will influence this conflict. Picture: UN Photo/Martine Perret (CC BY-NC-ND)

Last Sunday, Belarus intercepted and diverted a commercial flight between two EU capitals to arrest a dissident. This, alongside the stagnation of the Belarusian economy, the continuing protests and Lukashenka’s illegitimate rule, fuels popular discontent in the country and worries the European Union. Katia Glod, non-resident fellow with the Russia programme of the US-based Center for European Policy Analysis, Linas Linkevičius, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Minister of Defence of Lithuania as well as ECFR Council member, and ECFR visiting fellow Pavel Slunkin who previously worked for the Foreign Ministry of Belarus and our host for this week’s episode ECFR deputy director Vessela Tcherneva recap the recent developments and explore the broader context of the crisis: What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? What is Russia’s role in this? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?  This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2021. Further reading: After the Pratasevich arrest: Four key steps for the EU on Belarus by Joanna Hosa & Pavel Slunkin, https://ecfr.eu/article/after-the-pratasevich-arrest-four-key-steps-for-the-eu-on-belarus/ Bookshelf: A promised land by Barack Obama, obama-a-promised-land.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/books/review/barack-obama-a-promised-land.html The politics book: Big ideas simply explained by Kate Johnsen, Sam Atkinson & Rebecca Warren, https://www.frostmagazine.com/2013/03/the-politics-book-review/ Airport by Arthur Hailey, https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/a/arthur-hailey-3/airport/ Image: Andrey Kukharenko CC2.0 https://www.flickr.com/photos/192897193@N02/51199553335/

Catastrophe and disaster have been a frequent phenomenon throughout the history of mankind, coming in different forms. So how is it then that, despite being far more scientifically educated on the origins of disasters, we do not seem to be getting any better at dealing with them? To find out, host Mark Leonard talks to Niall Ferguson, author of the book “Doom: The politics of catastrophe” and senior fellow at both the Hoover Institution at Stanford University as well as the Center for European Studies at Harvard University. Together, they address why some societies and states respond to catastrophe so much better than others. And why do some fall apart, most hold together, and a few emerge stronger? This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2021. Further reading: - "Doom: The politics of catastrophe" by Niall Ferguson: https://buff.ly/3fy2DWA Bookshelf: - "America in the world: A history of U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy" by Robert B. Zoellick - "The road less traveled: The secret battle to end the Great War, 1916-1917" by Philip D. Zelikow

China’s formalised, seemingly nonchalant, attitude towards the Western Balkans masks a surprising nimbleness and strategic intent. In the past decade, the country has become the most prominent third actor in this part of the European Union’s neighbourhood. To find out why, host Mark Leonard talks to Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow in ECFR´s Wider Europe programme with a focus on the Western Balkans, Vladimir Shopov, visiting fellow with ECFR´s Asia programme, as well as Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director of ECFR and head of ECFR’s Sofia office. Together, they discuss why it is important to take a closer look at Chinese engagement in the region, how much influence China already has in the Western Balkans and how European policymakers should react. This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2021. Further reading: Decade of patience: How China became a power in the Western Balkans by Vladimir Shopov, https://ecfr.eu/publication/decade-of-patience-how-china-became-a-power-in-the-western-balkans/ Bookshelf: War: How Conflict Shaped Us by Margaret MacMillan, margaret-macmillan.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/books/review/war-margaret-macmillan.html The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-global-energy-study-that-misses-some-climate-change-realities/2020/09/24/1addeb3e-f2b3-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State by Elizabeth C. Economy, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2019/01/15/book-review-the-third-revolution-xi-jinping-and-the-new-chinese-state-by-elizabeth-economy/ Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/may/07/doom-by-niall-ferguson-review-how-to-make-sense-of-catastrophe Photo: REUTERS/Djordje Kojadinovic

The EU is India's largest trading partner; India, in turn, is only the EU’s tenth largest trading partner. And despite the two often having expressed an interest in closer trade and political relations, there has been no visible progress made in the last years. Ahead of the EU-India Leaders Summit on 8 May 2021, host Mark Leonard talks to Fréderic Grare, senior policy fellow with ECFR’s Asia Programme, Raja Mohan, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore and columnist of the Indian Express, as well as Manisha Reuter, ECFR´s Asia programme coordinator. How does the covid-19 pandemic impact India´s geopolitics and foreign policy? How has the rise of China influenced EU-India relations so far? And what are the prospects of a closer EU-India relationship following the upcoming Summit? This podcast was recorded on 5 May 2021. Further reading: “The EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy: A chance for a clear message to China and Europe’s allies” by Fréderic Grare: https://buff.ly/3sKTjmO “Friends in deed: How the EU and the Quad can promote security in the Indo-Pacific” by Manish Reuter https://buff.ly/33ud7Ax Bookshelf - “Globalists: the end of empire and the birth of neoliberalism” by Quinn Slobodian - “India's power elite” by Sanjaya Baru - “India's China challenge: A journey through China's rise and what it means for India” by Ananth Krishnan “The Covid Consensus: The new politics of global inequality” by Toby Green https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-covid-consensus/

While Germany’s long-ruling centre-right parties continue to offer more of the same, the Greens have recently emerged as a serious contender in the run-up to September’s federal elections. Rather than demanding that Germans give up their lifestyles, the Greens are promising to make Germany a better version of itself. But how will this affect German foreign policy? Host Mark Leonard talks to Franziska Brantner, spokesperson for European Policy and Parliamentary Secretary of Bündnis90/Die Grünen’s parliamentary group as well as Janka Oertel, head of ECFR´s Asia programme to discuss what Germany’s future with a Green government would look like. This podcast was recorded on 29 April 2021. Further reading: •“Germany’s Green Velvet Revolution?” by Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/2RcOTb6 Bookshelf: •“Green Recovery Tracker": https://www.greenrecoverytracker.org/ •“Heimat Europa?” by Martin Ramb & Holger Zaborowski, • “China’s FinTech: the end of the wild west” by Viviana Zhu