The coronavirus pandemic might not be a 'pandemic' for much longer So, looking ahead, experts have come together to propose countermeasures for future epidemics and pandemics.  It's all about transparency and equity at a global scale.  References: It is time for ambitious, transformational change to the epidemic countermeasures ecosystem

A team has analysed data out of China, proving the presence of animals in the Wuhan market capable of hosting SARS-CoV-2.

Another wave of COVID infections seems to be underway in parts of Australia, and NSW is leading the pack.  The variant soup is getting more complex by the day — but luckily the dominant mutations don't seem to be causing more severe disease.  Regardless, as more people get infected and re-infected, researchers are fast at work trying to determine what might protect people from long-term consequences.  References:  Adherence to Healthy Lifestyle Prior to Infection and Risk of Post-COVID-19 Condition Severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile in England in 2020: a population-based cohort study

In 2022, Australia saw an estimated 12% increase in the number of deaths compared to expert predictions.  More than half of those were due to COVID-19. And there are signs that even the deaths that couldn't be directly linked to COVID-19 are a result of the pandemic.  This pattern isn't just playing out in Australia, but around the globe. So what are the driving factors, and what can be done to address them? References:  Almost 20,000 excess deaths for 2022 in Australia One-Year Adverse Outcomes Among US Adults With Post-COVID-19 Condition vs Those Without COVID-19 in a Large Commercial Insurance Database Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Since ATAGI updated its booster advice there have been lots of questions about why kids aren't able to get another jab.  We discuss the reasoning behind the age limit, as well as some other vaccine-related questions from listeners.  Also, a few controversial COVID topics... from Ivermectin to the US Energy Department's theory on where the virus came from.  References: COVID-19 vaccines for children Effect of Higher-Dose Ivermectin for 6 Days vs Placebo on Time to Sustained Recovery in Outpatients With COVID-19 Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says

Antivirals are an important measure to prevent severe disease in vulnerable people with COVID-19.  But there have been concerns antivirals could lead to rebound infections — the resurgence of viral load following the completion of the medication. So what do the latest studies say? Also, we speak to an expert informing the parliamentary inquiry into long COVID about how to best care for patients.  Guest: Professor Tania Sorrell University of Sydney References:  SARS-CoV-2 rebound with and without antivirals Viral burden rebound in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 receiving oral antivirals in Hong Kong: a population-wide retrospective cohort study Submission—Inquiry into long COVID and repeated COVID infections

An old debate has been reignited after a review declared the effects of masks is uncertain and in need of further investigation.  Meanwhile Sydney scientists have found a receptor that sticks to the coronavirus and pulls it away from lung cells, opening up potential treatment avenues.  But for now, vaccines remain the best protection against severe disease. So when should you get your next booster? We answer some common questions.  References:  Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses Yes, masks reduce the risk of spreading COVID, despite a review saying they don't Fibroblast-expressed LRRC15 is a receptor for SARS-CoV-2 spike and controls antiviral and antifibrotic transcriptional programs

Australian adults will be able to get a fifth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine within a fortnight. People aged 18 and over who've not had a COVID vaccine or a positive case in the last six months will also be eligible for another shot.

The majority of Australians have received at least two doses of a COVID vaccine — and they've most likely caught the virus as well.  New research suggests this hybrid immunity offers good protection against severe disease, although the risk of long COVID persists with even mild bouts of infection.  There could soon be a simple model to predict how likely you are to recover well from COVID, or whether you'll go on to develop post-viral symptoms.  Guest:  Professor Jeremy Nicholson Director, Australian National Phenome Centre, Health Futures Institute References: Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression A patient-centric modeling framework captures recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection

It has been three years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health emergency.  The WHO isn't ready to downgrade the status of the pandemic, but the committee has agreed we're at a 'transition' point.  Meanwhile an outbreak of influenza in mink has highlighted the need for greater animal-human disease surveillance.   

Although we didn't begin this year with any lockdowns or border closures, the pandemic hasn't abated. In fact we're off to a worse start than we had in 2022. Australia surpassed 1,000 deaths a whole week earlier than it did last year.  New subvariants are circulating fast. So what's changed? What's the best protection? And could sluggish surveillance be leaving us vulnerable?

What a year 2022 has been for COVID.  We started with a new variant sweeping the world, heavy restrictions and border closures and we end with very few restrictions remaining. We also sadly end with millions not fully vaccinated, and an aged care system that is still battling the virus. So on the last Coronacast of the year, we go down the 2022 rabbit hole and try to make some predictions for 2023.

The number of new weekly COVID cases seems to be slowing, but sadly doesn't seem to be slowing fast enough to be free of the current wave by Christmas. Last year was a strong COVID Christmas, as the Omicron variant took over from Delta bringing thousands and thousands of new cases. This time, the wave will be smaller - but still noticeable. And we break down the big announcements from National Cabinet: PCR testing and the country's COVID strategy in 2023.

There's been a lot of discussion about the origins of COVID, especially on the question of did it come from a lab, did it form naturally - or maybe a mix of both. Well a new book called Dark Winter has tackled this question and has come to the conclusion that we better get better at identifying outbreaks - because sometimes they're intentional. While there's no direct evidence that COVID came from a lab leak, author and Professor Raina MacIntyre argues it is possible and some have been too quick to wave away the possibility.

Protests are breaking out across parts of China in response to the Chinese government zero COVID restrictions. The number of COVID cases has soared in China in recent weeks, rising at a similar rate to what happened in March this year. The outbreak was quickly brought under control, by the use of the Government's severe measures such as forced external quarantine and city wide lockdowns. But with widespread discontent and protests, it may prove harder to keep this outbreak under control. So is this the end of China's COVID zero? References: China Covid: Shocking protests are huge challenge for China's leaders - Stephen McDonell Associations between COVID‐19 and hospitalisation with respiratory and non‐respiratory conditions: a record linkage study

There's hope that the current Omicron sub variant wave will be in decline again just in time for Christmas - but like everything COVID, it's hard to know for sure. Both case loads and hospitalisations due to COVID have continued to increase in the last week. The latest advice from state health authorities say that overseas experience suggests the current wave might pass relatively quickly, though they warn local conditions may mean it's different here. So what do we know about the latest wave? And is it better to have a quick one, or one that lasts for a longer time?

Another week, another big jump in COVID case numbers and rising admissions to hospitals. The next wave is well and truly underway, with the BA4 and BA5 sub variants rapidly being replaced by versions that are even more immune evasive. However, when Omicron turned up last year there were a variety of public health measures in place to try and slow infection rates.  This time though, we've only got vaccination and an optional sense of public duty. So can we slow down the next wave, or is it coming in hard and fast? 

Rapid-antigen tests promised so much: a quick, cheap and easy way to tell if you were COVID positive so you could make a decision to help protect yourself, family and community. But in reality, it's far more complicated. The tests were initially hard to come by, expensive for some and the rollout was patchy. And now, add to that the fact that the coronavirus has continued to evolve - making it hard to tell if RATs can even detect COVID. So on this week's Coronacast, should we give a rat about RATs anymore? And why is it important that the tests do as they say?

New sub-variants of Coronavirus are increasingly appearing in Government statistics and clinical breakdowns of the virus' spread. The BQ1 and XBB sub-variants of Omicron have surged overseas, and are also starting to pick up in Australia. It's likely that they'll take over the BA5 subvariant that's been dominant for the past several months. So what could these new variants bring and given they're likely to evade our immune systems, what could it mean for spread and severe disease?

For those keeping count, 2022 hasn't been a great year for animal virus outbreaks into human populations. A new study has suggested that the Omicron variant may have had a reservoir in mice. Also, there are warnings that the East Coast floods may see a rise in people infected with the Japanese encephalitis virus, and parts of Uganda are locked down to prevent an Ebola outbreak from spreading into cities and across borders. So what's going on and how can we make sense of it all?

After all big events, it's important to look back and think about what worked and what didn't. And one of the biggest events lately is COVID, and especially how Australia handled it. A group of researchers and experts have done just that, analyzing everything from the vaccine rollout to virus control measures to looking at what could be improved for the next pandemic. So what did we do well, and what could we have done better?

The first COVID booster that targets the Omicron variant has finally been introduced to Australia's vaccine rollout. The vaccine from Moderna targets the BA.1 Omicron subvariant, but that's no longer the dominant strain. Omicron has continued to evolve since the vaccine was updated, and the dominant strain is now BA5. So how well will the new vaccine work with BA5? And if you've already had 4 doses, why can't you get this one as your 5th?

The decision by National Cabinet to remove mandatory isolation for people testing positive to COVID-19 is seen by many as an "official" end to the pandemic. The period had already been reduced from two weeks to one week to 5 days, but soon it'll be gone entirely. It's one of the final public health controls that remained to try and slow the spread of the virus, and some experts say it'll lead to problems down the road. So for how long should we treat COVID differently?

Russia has been in the news for all the wrong reasons, and here's another concern to add to the list. Scientists are on the alert about the risk of another virus spilling over from animals to humans. This time it's Russian horseshoe bats and a coronavirus from the SARS family. It's known as Khosta 2 and while there has been no known human transmission so far, unlike Khosta 1 scientists say there is the possibility that it could occur. And it's not affected by vaccines for COVID-19. That's on this week's Cororonacast. Also on today's show: * Tracking new COVID variants: we look at 2.75.2

One of the mainstays over the past few years has been daily reporting of COVID cases, hospitalisations, ICUs and deaths.

When COVID hit, there were a whole lot of predictions about how many people would die. Not just of the virus itself, but the knock on effects from reduced care and other diseases. One of the latest attempts at working out the number of excess deaths is recently published and has taken a wide view of the population looking for trends. And while the group found that excess deaths from undiagnosed COVID is likely low in Australia, increased deaths from COVID-caused complications is beginning to show up.

It may not be long before Omicron specific vaccines are available in Australia, like they are elsewhere in the world. Last week the Therapeutic Goods Administration provisionally approved an Omicron variant specific vaccine, but we’re still waiting on ATAGI to recommend its use. So with it likely to be available soon, is it worth waiting for if you’re due for your booster or should you just get what’s available now? Also on today’s show: * Snot and the inner parts of your nose - could this be the key to finally ending the pandemic?  

Back at the start of the pandemic, if you tested positive for COVID - or even if you were a contact - you were looking at two weeks of isolation.  These days, that's been downgraded to a week, and contacts are generally free to go about their normal life.  But while COVID is still undeniably a health risk, having masses of people undergoing mandatory isolation takes its own toll.  So should compulsory isolation be shortened or even scrapped altogether? Also on today's show: * Are vaccination requirements still useful?  * Moderna sues Pfizer/BioNTech * Didn't I see Norman out and about without a mask on the other day? 

It seems that COVID cases in the latest wave have indeed peaked, and all things across the usual pandemic metrics are improving. It's the best COVID caseload we've had since Omicron came into our lives late last year. So has BA5 burnt itself out or is this just a small respite? And are we due for another variant? Also on today's show: * How is COVID associated with increased risks of neurological and psychiatric conditions? * Is monkeypox getting away from us?

Pretty much ever since the pandemic began, we've been told to socially distance by at least 1.5 meters if possible to reduce the chances of infection. But as the science is gathered on how much viral load flows from an infected person, how relevant is that recommendation? Was it even correct in the first place? Well a new - yet to be peer reviewed - study has attempted to explain just how much virus is in one's exhaled breath aerosols. And what does this mean for how the virus is spread?

Is it finally time to say a big see ya later to the latest B5 COVID wave? The Omicron family has already brought us several waves - the first at the start of the year when it muscled out Delta and the most recent big one via B5. But there are signs that it is finally slowing down. Cases are dropping and there are small, but positive, signs that deaths are also falling. So while it may be the end of the worst of B5, what could be next?

As more and more people become infected with COVID-19, more and more people are also going to be reinfected. But there's another type of reinfection known as a rebound infection, which can happen in the days after you've recovered. The US President Joe Biden tested positive again this week for COVID-19 only a few days after he was cleared following his treatment with antiviral medication Paxlovid. So what could be going on? How common are rebound infections and could it extend to people who don't take the drugs also being reinfected?

When the pandemic started we were so worried about surfaces. But it turned out that wasn't so much of a concern. The big thing was the very air we breathe. But as Governments largely scale back on mandates and restrictions, experts are urging more be done on things that can prevent spread of the virus And the big target is better ventilation. On today's special Coronacast, Tegan Taylor takes a look around to see how bad the air is in everyday life.

BA5 sure is making itself well known, and is responsible for soaring infection and reinfection rates right across the country. So how does it compare in infectiousness to other diseases? Well working that out is a difficult question. It's partly down to changing variables like vaccination and controls, but also changes to the virus itself. So on this week's Coronacast, why it doesn't really matter if BA5 is as infectious as measles - it's still doing a lot of damage. Also on today's show: * Enough about BA5 - what about BA2.75? Bring on the 'Centaurus' talk! * An update on pregnancy and COVID-19 * And BA5 in schools - will a booster help? cvp_20220727_episode477_ba5_infectious.mp3 13286016 830000

It's been a month since Coronacast took a break, and since then a lot has changed. The BA4 and 5 variants have become dominant, and immunologists are starting to worry about the state of play. Firstly, BA4 and 5 are acting a bit like new variants. They're evading vaccines and prior infections even more than original Omicron and there's no sign they're slowing down. And secondly, COVID case loads are surging and hospitals are feeling the pressure. So what else has changed over the last month, and what's the rest of winter looking like? Also on today's show: * I'm suddenly eligible for a fourth dose. Do I bother getting it? * Can you get the 2nd booster shot 28 days after having COVID (in line with information that re-infection can occur after 28 days), or is it still best to wait the 3 months, and if so, why is it best to wait? * I've had two AstraZeneca and one Moderna shots. What should I have as my fourth dose?

There's been a bunch of good news this week about kids and COVID, including kids under 5 moving a touch closer to become eligible for vaccination A Scandanavian study has shown that before babies are born, they get an immune benefit from their vaccinated mother. Another study has looked at a rare condition that can happen in kids after COVID, called MIS-C, and found vaccinated kids are way more protected from it And also both Pfizer and Moderna have moved slightly closer to being registered for kids under 5 in the USA. Also on today's show: * Are there rapid tests available to test for influenza? * I've noticed that cases seem to be falling. Is it just that it's being under reported? I haven't heard any mention of it in the media but it's the opposite of what I expected as we head into winter. AND WE'LL BE TAKING A BREAK FOR THE NEXT MONTH BECAUSE NORMAN IS ON HOLIDAYS. SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FEED AND WE'LL BE BACK SOON.

This time last year, Australia's vaccination program was getting underway and many were coming forward for their first or second shots. But Australia's haven't embraced the third dose as quickly or in as large numbers. The third dose is vital for the best protection against disease, and is recommended for the majority of Australians. So why aren't people coming forward as quickly? Also on today's show: * Is it possible that we may have caught COVID without realising it? * Are there instances of assumed second COVID infections that are actually just relapses?

Since the variant we now know as Omicron burst onto the scene late last year, it's proved to be a shapeshifter, spawning no fewer than five subvariants so far. Each have their own characteristics, but which is the most likely to become the dominant strain? There's finally enough data around to start making a comparison - so which subvariant will rule them all, what features give it the advantage, and what possible tools we might use to fight it? Also on today's show: * If I'm triple vaccinated and COVID is everywhere, could I have encountered it and fought it off, making me even more immune now? * What's the latest on the scary, mysterious hepatitis that's been reported in kids?

While COVID continues to ravage the world, it's far from the only virus that's affecting humans at the moment. Cases of flu are soaring in Australia, and the Queensland Government is worried enough about it that it's offering all Queenslanders a free flu vaccination. And to add to that is a new outbreak of monkeypox in Europe and North America with 100 suspected and confirmed cases so far, though cases have not been severe. So what is Monkeypox, could it end up like COVID and how worried should we be?

We are only days away from the 2022 Federal Election, where we'll find out who'll be leading the country for the next few years. But for whoever wins, there's the huge reality of dealing with and managing the ongoing COVID pandemic, which is still killing an average of 40 Australians a day. COVID policy and response hasn't featured much during the election campaign. So on today's Coronacast, what COVID issues will face whoever wins office next? Also on today's show: * Our daughter tested positive on a RAT. We had a PCR test the same day and it came back negative. So we tested again via a RAT and it was positive again. Does this mean the PCR test wasn't done properly? * I have been diagnosed with COVID twice this year. Is this the future, COVID every 4 or 5 months?

A British COVID report has finally answered a question many have had: can you get long COVID, even after you're triple vaccinated. And the answer is, sadly, yes. About eight to nine percent of people have some sort of long-COVID symptoms, even after they've had their third dose. But there is some good news: long COVID is still far lower in vaccinated people than in unvaccinated. Also on today's show: * What's happening with second generation vaccines? * How worried should we really be about surface transmission?

While most of the Australian population is vaccinated against COVID-19, going by the amount of people who have died in 2022, this is by far the worst year of the pandemic. More than 5000 people have died so far this year, and another 30 or 40 are continuing to die on average each day at the moment. So on this week’s Coronacast, why have we stopped paying attention to deaths and can we do anything to reduce them? Also on today’s show: * Paxlovid is now part of the PBS. So what is the drug again? Who should take it? When? And why?

When Omicron burst onto the scene late last year, scientists were shocked at how many mutations it had compared to previous variants. We now know that it's way more transmissible than previous variants and less nasty than Delta, although that hasn't stopped it from causing a lot of severe disease and death. But biology isn't static and Omicron has continued to evolve. First came BA1, then came a new wave of BA2 and now we're starting to see another new subvariant: BA4. So on today's Coronacast, what is BA4, where did it come from and how much of a worry is it? Also on today's show: * What's going on with the hepatitis condition in kids? Is it being caused by COVID-19?

China is fighting its largest coronavirus outbreak since the pandemic begun, but the lockdown being used to try and control it is facing resistance? Videos on social media appear to show small riots breaking out in parts of Shanghai while some residents are recording themselves screaming and yelling from their apartments in desperation. So is China's zero-COVID policy unable to withstand the onslaught of Omicron? And why is China resorting to lockdowns? Also on today's show: * How's COVID going in the USA? * Omicron refresher: Do RATs work against it? What are the main symptoms? How long is the incubation? * How much of the world has had COVID now?

The race has well and truly been on for third dose COVID-19 vaccinations, but now add to that vaccination for the coming flu season. The past couple of years have seen a lull in flu infections because closed borders kept more than just COVID out — but that will change this year. So what happens if you get both COVID-19 and the flu and the same time? Is it even possible? And how do you reduce the risk of that happening? Also on today's show: * Why isn't Australia pulling its weight when it comes to reporting on vaccine effectiveness?

As the BA2 subvariant of Omicron infects its way to the top of the coronavirus leaderboard, we're thanking our lucky stars that it's not as or more severe than Delta. But imagine a coronavirus variant that has genes from both Omicron and Delta: enter Deltacron The ability for two variants to combine and share genetic information is possible, and according to recent research has already happened. So what's the possibility the next variant of concern will not be due to mutation, but instead combining? Also on today's show: * Antibody profile after Omicron * What makes something a subvariant and not just a new variant? * Lots of questions about fourth doses

With cases rising quickly again, it's left many wondering: wasn't the peak supposed to be behind us? Well, turns out the pandemic isn't over and a mix of relaxed restrictions and the BA2 sub-variant have combined to once again push up infections. It also shows that the rollercoaster ride that we're on may not be stopping for a while, and the up and down nature is something we'll have to get used to. Also on today's show: * Increase in diabetes with long COVID * More on if we're going to need a 4th dose

The sixth season of If You're Listening tells the story of Australia's turbulent history with climate change, and what that means for the future. As we approach a federal election where climate and energy is a key battleground, this eight episode series will examine how Australia wasted decades fighting change, instead of capitalising on it. This is a special listen of the first episode and is the only time it'll appear in the Coronacast feed, so if you want to check it out search for "Australia, If You're Listening" where ever you get your podcasts. Or find the links here on the ABC website: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/if-youre-listening/

The sub-variant of Omicron, known at the moment as BA2, is being blamed for a rise in cases in NSW and likely in other states and territories. And overseas, Hong Kong is struggling with a wave which is killing more and more people due to low levels of vaccination in high risk age groups. So what could the sub-variant mean for Australia as the weather slowly cools down and we enter darker, cooler times? Also on today's show: * China goes into lockdown in several big cities * Australian researchers have uncovered resistance mutations to Sotrovimab

Occasionally, Coronacast gets a question from the audience that not only stumps them, it stumps the expert scientists as well. And this week, that question came from Helen who was wondering how many people before her had COVID and passed it on to someone else, stretching all the way from her back to Wuhan in China. It raises many interesting questions about viral evolution and how we can reduce the number of infections globally. Also on today's show: * BA2 Omicron sub-variant becoming more and more dominant, according to NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard * Coronacast will be dropping back to weekly. We'll be out every Wednesday so watch your feed!

A study has found that COVID is associated with changes to the human brain in some people after they've been infected. The study, published in the journal Nature, has found brain related abnormalities in patients six months or so after their initial infection. The findings suggest this can happen regardless of severity but may be worse in those with severe disease Also on today's show: * My wife and I are in isolation at the moment after both testing positive to COVID. Her symptoms are worse than mine and she suggested I isolate in a different part of the home? * The virus in my body is a direct descendant of the virus that infected people in the wet market in Wuhan. How many people do you think it has been through to get to me? * If there is every chance we will all, eventually get Omicron, is there an argument to getting it sooner than later?

Did COVID escape from a lab? Was it natural evolution? How did it happen? These are all very big questions that scientists have been working on answering ever since SARS-CoV-2 arrived in our lives in late 2019. Now, the release of two (still to be peer reviewed) articles have outlined more evidence that COVID didn't escape a lab, and instead evolved naturally in animals before jumping to humans. And on today's Coronacast, they may have even found the very cage in the Wuhan market where COVID made the jump. GUEST: Professor Eddie Holmes, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney

Western Australia has reopened its border after more than a year of staying shut off from the world as part of its COVID control strategy. While people can once again travel, WA is in the middle of a growing outbreak - but it has imposed restrictions to help flatten the curve. With WA now open again, Australia is once again whole - so how is the nation tracking for COVID and how does 2022 compare to previous years? Also on today's show: * The TGA provisionally approves AstraZeneca's combination antibodies. What is it? How does it differ from vaccination? And why might it be useful?

Last year was all about the push to vaccinate adults and teens against COVID-19, and despite a slow start we certainly got there in the end. Now this year the vaccine focus has turned to two things: third doses for adults, and first doses for younger kids. So how is the vaccine rollout for 5-11s going? How do the vaccines work in kids and what is the latest of safety and efficacy?

Throughout history, war and disease have gone hand in hand. As the Russian/Ukrainian war escalates, it's still too early to know what effect it'll have on the COVID-19 pandemic but it certainly won't help. So what can we learn from previous conflicts and pandemics, like the 1918 flu pandemic or even the plague? That's on today's Coronacast Also on today's show: * What can we learn from two Omicron superspreading events in Newcastle? * Cases in WA continue to go up * Quick(ish) Fire Friday returns!

More and more states and territories are slowly removing restrictions, and letting people try to return to a sense of a normal life. Victoria yesterday said that masks can come off in most indoor environments from midnight Friday and Queensland is scrapping density limits and stopping daily press conferences. So is this finally the end of the pandemic, or more just a lull between variants? Also on today's show: * Vaccination while pregnant safe, another study finds * Worried about long-COVID? Here are four possible risk factors that might trigger it.

As we move to the next phases of the pandemic, there are many people who are yet to make the psychological jump and mental readjustment to a different life. Many are only mildly anxious, but there are also groups of people who are still worried about leaving their house. So what can you do if you have a friend or family member suffering from pandemic related anxiety or even depression? GUEST: Professor Frances Kay-Lambkin, a psychologist and mental health researcher at the University of Newcastle

It's taken several weeks, but the number of new COVID-19 cases in Western Australia is now increasing rapidly. At the start of February, WA had a 7-day average of 19 cases a day. Now that average is nearly 100. So from here, can we expect to see a very rapid increase in cases like we saw in the eastern states over Christmas/New Year? Or could the delayed reopening and closed borders help flatten that curve? Also on today's show: * Victoria and NSW announce they're loosening restrictions even more

So, where's this pandemic actually heading? It's a good question and quite hard to answer as... well... no one can tell you the future. But experts have never shied away from making some educated guesses, including SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies in the UK. They've published four scenarios ranging from as good as it can be given the circumstances to downright doom and gloom. So on today's Coronacast, what does SAGE think we can expect from the pandemic over the next few years and which scenario is most likely to be right?

When COVID burst onto the scene in late 2019, it came as a shock to most of the world's population and we've all been dealing with it ever since. But to many researchers, it was less of a surprise and more of an inevitability - and now they're urging governments to act now to stop the next one. It comes down to the old medical saying: prevention is better than cure. So what can be done to help prevent the next pandemic and how much will it cost?

For months now, experts have been saying we'll need three doses to be protected from coronavirus, especially the Omicron variant. And now, it's official. Yesterday, the rules changed and people over 16 will be required to have all three doses of a COVID vaccine to be considered "up to date". So why make the change now when previously two vaccines were considered good enough? And might it mean for vaccine mandates down the track? Also on today's show: * Should me and my family just go out and get Omicron? * Should I wait the full eight weeks to get my daughters second vaccination or should I do it at six? * Does testing positive just after my booster reduce its effectiveness?

Two years into the pandemic, we're still discovering new things about COVID almost daily. The latest is what COVID can do to your heart, a year after you've been infected. A huge study has shown really disturbing problems from heart attacks, to strokes, to blood clots on the lungs to heart failure. So on today's Coronacast, who is at most risk? And what does this tell us about COVID as a disease? Also on today's show: * International tourists - what will they bring? * The real story about aged care * Who needs a fourth dose, when and why?

When it comes to ways to fight COVID-19, vaccines have been the main tool we've used so far during the pandemic. But new antivirals are being produced for use including in Australia which has recently provisionally approved two different drugs. They promise to help stop at-risk people ending up in hospital and dying. So what are the drugs, how do they work and will they usher in a new way of handling the pandemic? GUEST: Professor Josh Davis, Infectious Diseases, Uni Newcastle, past president of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases and member of the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce

As the Omicron wave continues to subside, there's the temptation to hope that now that it's over, the whole pandemic is done. And while we can dream that it's true, hoping unfortunately won't help that become reality. The general weariness is understandable for us everyday people, but what about for policy makers and their preparations for new variants or the next wave? Also on today's show: * Are we really at Omicron's peak? * Can a person be infected simultaneously with two or more strains of coronavirus? * Why aren't COVID case numbers exploding in WA? * Will Novavax be offered as a booster? * Can you be asymptomatic and get long COVID? Could this explain why I am so tired?

Looking at the family tree of coronavirus is a bit like taking a trip down memory lane. The whole crew is there including the famous ones like Alpha, Beta and Delta, and the ones that never really made it into the big time. But what if we zoom in on Omicron? Lately, there's been a bit of noise made about a few Omicron sub variants. What are they? And how much should we worry? Also on today's show: * TGA releases a post-market review for rapid antigen tests. What can we learn from it? References: https://www.tga.gov.au/post-market-review-antigen-and-rapid-antigen-tests

As the scary peaks in all states and territories in Australia, except WA, seems to be behind us, there is now a new sense of calm. Daily coronavirus cases seem to be falling for now, and there's renewed hope that the worst of this wave is behind us. And according to some experts, it could well be the case both here and globally. Due to so many people now either infected by Omicron or vaccinated, they say we may be settling into a new trough of equilibrium. So is it the end of the pandemic? Or just a calm before the next storm? Also on this week's show: * Deaths are still high * WA cases are increasing. What are their options? * Vaccines help protect against long COVID

The number of people dying from COVID hit a record high this week, as large case numbers continue in most states and territories. It comes as no surprise then that NSW and Victoria announced that people can get their third dose at the three month mark, bringing it forward from the 31st January which was originally planned. So why roll out boosters even earlier? Could the number of deaths be tied to people not being as protected as they could be? Also on this week's show: * Vaccine supply and logistics * Novavax approved! * Is the term "elective surgery" a bad way of phrasing it? * Peaks? Coming soon? * How reliable are rapid antigen tests? * Kids vaccination, kids going back to school and keeping kids safe

We're all no doubt very tired of the pandemic by now and could be forgiven for hoping now that Omicron has landed in Australia, once we get over the current outbreak it's all over. But according to evolutionary virologist Eddie Holmes, sadly Omicron won't be the last and in fact the next variant probably won't evolve from Omicron. So what can we do apart from get vaccinated and hope this terrible roller coaster ride will somehow end soon?

Well, that escalated quickly. When Coronacast left you last year, there were nearly 4000 national daily cases. Yesterday, there were more than 72,000 and there's no sign it's slowing down. Health systems in most states and territories are beginning to groan under significant pressure. Add to it probably more than one or two hundred thousand cases a day going unreported, it's fair to say COVID in Australia is in a bit of a mess. So on today's Coronacast - which will be coming out weekly for at least the next few weeks - when might the peak be here? And what can we expect in coming days and weeks?

It's been a massive year for coronavirus and COVID-19. There have been outbreaks, lockdowns and a pile of new variants. But there have also been massive successes like the vast majority of Australians coming forward to be vaccinated. But sadly, the pandemic seems like it's far from over. So on today's last Coronacast of the year, we look forward to 2022 and offer some tips on how to stay safe this summer. We'll be back around February 2022! Thanks so much for listening and writing this year.

As COVID numbers continue to rapidly increase in NSW - likely due to the Omicron variant - we're being warned that modelling is pointing to 25,000 cases a day by the end of January. Yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard talked about modelling by the University of NSW which said case numbers could reach heights not seen before in Australia. And it comes as NSW continues to let its foot off the restrictions brake, redefining what a close contact is. So is what is happening there likely to happen everywhere else in the country Omicron has found its way into? Also on today's show: * A very special guest!

There was a large jump in COVID cases in NSW yesterday, and while we're largely moving on from day to day case numbers - this one is worth talking about. Why? Well, there's a new variant in town and health authorities are already suggesting that we can expect far more from Omicron in coming weeks. The same goes for other states and territories - like Victoria which still has higher daily figures than NSW, but hasn't yet seen a big jump. So on today's Coronacast what should we make of the rising caseload and does it matter? Also on today's show: * A deeper look at what's going on in South Africa * An announcement on Coronacast for 2022!

After nearly two years of constant internal border changes, by the end of this week large parts of Australia will once again be open for domestic travel. South Australia opened a few weeks ago, Queensland opened yesterday and Tasmania is due to open tomorrow. Western Australia has also finally given a date and will reopen on the 5th of February next year. So with state and territory bubbles bursting all over the place, what might come next for people who live there? Also on today's show: * How is decoupling going? * Fourth dose anyone? * Pregnancy and booster shots

Australia now has two different booster options to choose from when the inevitable time comes for the third dose of coronavirus vaccine. Moderna was approved by the country's vaccine expert group ATAGI over the weekend. We'll also be able to get the booster a month earlier, with the Government announcing a shorter period due to the threat of waning immunity and new variants. So if Moderna is a choice, should you take it over Pfizer? Does it even matter? And why is the Moderna booster only a half shot? Also on today's show: * A preprint study has found that Astra seems to wane faster than other vaccines, leaving no protective effect against symptomatic disease from Omicron 15 weeks after the second dose. What could this mean for the country's booster campaign?

As the data from initial studies into how Omicron evades our immunity continue to flow in, it's becoming more and more likely that a third dose - or booster - is going to be essential. Several more studies have been released, all showing large falls in immunity to the Omicron variant. One thing that the studies imply though is that there are much higher antibody levels in people who have either been infected, or received a third dose. So how much will third doses be needed to combat Omicron? Also on today's show: Quick Fire Friday! (booster edition)

One of the first studies into Omicron and immunity has reported back and it's not super great news: there's significant evasion of antibodies produced by the Pfizer vaccine. But not all is lost. The study says that the Omicron variant uses the same way of getting into our cells, meaning our existing tools and techniques should be relatively easy to change so they work better. The study is not yet published, and is a very small sample size so it's worth keeping in mind that this is still a very new area of science and is subject to change. Nonetheless, as today's Coronacast explains, it does give us a glimpse of what is likely to come. Also on today's show: * Could a mozzie vaccinate someone by biting a vaxed person and then an unvaxed person? * Your booster experiences

Beyond the nasty and sometimes life-threatening symptoms that COVID can bring, there's another risk: long COVID. It's the collection of prolonged symptoms including brain fog, smell loss and fatigue. And while we know that being vaccinated drastically reduces your risk of a bad bout of COVID itself, a lingering question has been whether it also protects you from long COVID. Well, according to a yet to be peer reviewed study, the answer is yes it does. Also on today's show: * Is there any research work being done to modify the virus to develop a relatively benign but transmissible COVID variant which could be released to "crowd out" the current dangerous variants? * Is there a chance that Omicron is different enough that instead of replacing Delta, you get both if not together then one after another? * And we're after your stories about getting third-doses. Was it easy? Or hard?

Over the next several months, the fight between Delta and Omicron is going to be scientifically fascinating. In the red corner is the current world champion Delta, which easily beat out every other variant of concern to date. In the blue corner is the challenger Omicron, whose continued existence probably relies on its ability to beat out the champion. But how will we know who's winning and when will we get a better sense of it all? Also on today's show: * What makes a virus go viral? * Who decides which variants you make vaccines for? * What happens if Omicron turns up in a place with no Delta (like Queensland or Tasmania, for example)?

It's been a bit more than a week since we learned of Omicron, the newest coronavirus variant of concern. And while we're still a while from knowing solid answers, the world's scientists have done an amazing job over the last 7 days unraveling parts of Omicron's mysteries. The three big questions are will our vaccines continue to work? For people who do get the virus, will it be severe and will it beat Delta to become the coronavirus champion of the world? So on today's Coronacast, what we know from the latest science about answering those big questions. Also on today's show * Does it escape previous immunity and/or our vaccines? * Is it better at spreading than Delta? * Does it matter? Does it make you sicker than previous variants? * Where's Dr Norman Swan's Omicronometer of Panic heading?

Just like we're likely going to be stuck with COVID for the rest of our lives, we're probably also going to be stuck wondering which is the most effective vaccine to protect against it. Well lucky we've got science to help sort it out, with a new study putting the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines head-to-head across hundreds of thousands of people. And other scientists have been busy working out how much protection you have against reinfection, if you are infected in the first place. Also on today's show: * Quick Fire Friday * Tegan interrupts Quick Fire Friday with her own - excellent - Quick Fire Question.

As the days tick by since Omicron was discovered, it's slowly spreading around the world. One example is reports of a couple of Israeli doctors who likely picked up Omicron in the United Kingdom, before flying back home. Their symptoms are said to be mild at the moment, but more worryingly, both of the doctors were fully vaccinated with Pfizer - that's all three doses. So what do we know about how Omicron works with our current vaccines? Also on today's show: * If we have been vaccinated to recognise the spike protein, why are variants so concerning? Is it the spike that changes?

Nearly two years into the global coronavirus pandemic, it's probably safe to say that we're all pretty much ready for it to be done. So no wonder we're hoping that very early reports from South Africa are possibly, just maybe, indicating that the Omicron variant is "milder" than variants before. But how much evidence is there for that yet? Is it true, or just wishful thinking? Also on today's show: * Is it possible that the emergence of this variant is actually an encouraging development for the COVID pandemic? * No big changes yet for Australia's international borders * The Omicron variant mutation that might end up helping us (a bit) * In previous episodes you have mentioned that variants can "out compete" other variants. What exactly does this mean and what is the mechanism behind it? * An update to the Dr Norman Swan Omicronometer of Panic

As the world desperately awaits news from scientists on anything Omicron, some experts have started thinking about where the variant might have come from. One theory is that it's from someone severely immunocompromised, where the virus has had millions of opportunities to evolve against a poor immune response. But it's far from the only theory. So on today's Coronacast, a few other possibilities of where - and when - Omicron might have popped into existence. Also on today's show: * The evolutionary lineage of Omicron * How should Australia be preparing? * The Dr Norman Swan Omicronometer of Panic is born

It's the news we didn't want: There's a new variant of concern in town and it's got all sorts of mutations just where you don't want them. It's also got a new fancy name: Omicron, and it's reportedly outpacing Delta in countries in southern Africa. But is it really? Is it more infectious? Is it more virulent? Is it vaccine resistant, and if so by how much? How much do we really know at the moment? Should I panic? Also on today's show: * What if the Omicron variant is the sort epidemiologists expected to see earlier in the pandemic: highly transmissible and less virulent?

As pandemics go, the coronavirus one is pretty big. It rapidly spread around the world, and is still causing problems. But how does it compare to past pandemics? Are we actually living in a fortunate time in human history? If we could magically replace COVID with a bug from the past, would it be a good or bad idea? Would you prefer the plague? Syphilis? Perhaps a flu pandemic might tickle your fancy. Well to help you decide, on today's Coronacast, we go through the pandemics in history. Also on today's show: * Rapid antigen tests work well against Delta * Quick Fire Friday!

All around the country at the moment are family discussions and debates about what to do about that one relative or friend who still doesn't want to get vaccinated. The numbers of double vaccinated people continue to rise as people realise it's in their benefit to get the jab. But there will always be holdouts, no matter what policies are put in place. So how much does it matter if someone at the Christmas party is unvaccinated when nearly 90 percent of us 12 or older are double dosed? Also on today's show: * How careful should my vaccinated pregnant daughter be about where she goes and who she sees? * What's the latest science on viral loads?

When the slew of variants popped into existence last year, scientists began worrying what it could mean for vaccine resistant variants down the line. So far, the Delta variant has remained top dog. While it is much more infectious than the original coronavirus, thankfully it doesn't evade our vaccines by much. But what about down the line? As more and more of the world is vaccinated, will the virus find a way to evolve to get around vaccines? That’s on today’s Coronacast. Also on today’s show: * Lockdowns return to Europe * How is Japan doing such a good job? * What side effects can I expect from my Pfizer booster shot if I had AstraZeneca for my first and second shot?

As we start to reopen to the world, it's inevitable that we'll start to see more cases of COVID-19 travel over our international and domestic borders. But it's far from the only bug that will make the journey while travelling inside a human. Influenza is one viruses we've been largely protected from over the last 18 months, after international border closures put a halt to incoming flights. So on today's Coronacast, what do we have to keep in mind when reopening and can we protect ourselves and our kids against virus we haven't seen in quite a while. Also on today's show: * Will a third dose give me better protection against variants? * Is there any evidence that taking paracetamol or ibuprofen after vaccination would reduce the body's immune response?

It's become a common claim among people who are still COVID-19 vaccine hesitant, that they say they're "waiting for Novavax". While there are currently three safe and effective vaccines available in Australia, Novavax is still not approved for use. Australia ordered Novavax a year ago, but as yet there's still no sign of it and the TGA says its application for approval is still under evaluation. So on today's Coronacast, if someone says they're waiting for Novavax, here's what you might want to reply with. Also on today's show: * Is it best to have Astra as my third shot? * We want to hear from you! Please fill in our listener survey and tell us what you think of the show.

The head of the umbrella organisation for Australia's Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations says she's nervous about the country's reopening over the next month. CEO of NACCHO Pat Turner says while some Indigenous communities are 100% fully vaccinated, others are far from done. She says part of the problem is state and territory governments wanting to leave it to the Commonwealth, and also certain religious groups bringing in misinformation and myths from the United States. On today's Coronacast, the patchy response to outbreaks in Indigenous communities and what else needs to be done before state borders reopen. GUEST: Pat Turner. CEO of the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation (NACCHO)

For obvious reasons, pandemics are pretty hot news right now. And it seems every few weeks, we see headlines about a possible new outbreak of potentially pandemic proportions. Thankfully, we haven't seen any new disease outbreaks yet, but it doesn't mean it won't happen sometime in the future. So what should we make of recent stories revealing a jump in avian influenza cases in 2021, and how likely is it that we'll be facing down a new pandemic anytime soon? Also on today's show: * A bit of a deeper dive into a recent article/story in the British Medical Journal, alleging issues with a trial site and its phase three trials of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.

When the NT's Chief Minister Michael Gunner held the COVID-19 press conference yesterday, he revealed news that many have been dreading. A significant cluster of COVID has been detected, and all the people who were announced yesterday to have contracted the disease are Indigenous Australians. It's the worst day ever for local cases in the NT since the pandemic began. That's on today's Coronacast. Also on today's show: * Where's our vaccination compensation scheme? * Very good news on boosters/third dose * If I've had two doses of Astra and we know that its efficacy wanes quite quickly, where does that leave me after a dose of Pfizer for my third dose? Have I caught up with all the people who had two doses of Pfizer or will I forever have less protection?

Nerves are running high in South Australia, as the state is now only one week away from opening the doors and inevitably letting COVID in. South Australia is leading the way for zero-COVID states, and will be the first to open its doors to people travelling from Victoria, NSW and ACT. It has a vaccination rate that is slowly increasing and may just get to 80 per cent fully vaccinated 16+ by next week. But on today's Coronacast, many are worried about what the future may hold. Also on today's show: * Good news for antibodies in breast milk * Just because you think you had COVID, doesn't mean you did

Australians know full well that the Delta variant loves winter. As the weather warms up here things are looking up, but overseas it's getting colder and case numbers in Europe are rising. Hopefully the heavy impact of winter and Delta won't be felt, thanks to high levels of vaccination in many western European countries. But on today's Coronacast, it hasn't stopped the reimposition of some public health control measures in Denmark. Also on today's show: * Since the pandemic started there's been a massive ramping up of technology development relating to vaccines. If they can develop a vaccine for a new pathogen so quickly, what's next?

When it was clear that the daily new COVID cases in Victoria had peaked, there was hope and speculation that the numbers would drop off quickly like what happened in NSW. But sadly, we're still getting about more than a thousand new cases a day and it's starting to level off at that figure. NSW has levelled off too lately, but at a much lower level of only a couple of hundred a day. So what could be going on and why aren't Victoria's numbers falling faster? And does it matter? Also on today's show: * Could anti-virals cause unvaccinated people to double down on not being vaccinated? * If you are due for a booster in the middle of the summer, might it be much better to wait until April/May and have the next shot when it starts to get colder? * Does Norman hate South Australia?

As vaccination rates increase and restrictions ease, plenty of us are starting to make plans for the Christmas and New Year breaks. But in most of Australia, restrictions aren't easing for everyone. For many people who aren't vaccinated, restrictions are staying or even getting harsher. So is this fair? Is it an effective way of getting the vaccination rate up? And how do you navigate tricky conversations with loved ones who don't feel the same way as you about the vax? GUEST: Professor Julie Leask, a social scientist and professor in the Susan Wakil School of Nursing and Midwifery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney.

With the news that NSW has hit 90 percent double vaccination in 16+, with other parts of the country to follow soon, you could be forgiven for thinking that the pandemic is finally over. But like it or not, we're still living through a pandemic and it's likely in the coming months there'll continue to be outbreaks and waves of COVID-19. It's not all bad news though. New drugs are likely to come online soon giving doctors even more tools to treat infections and prevent deaths. So what else could be in store for us in 2022? On today's Coronacast, we pull out the crystal ball for some blatant speculation.

When the Doherty model was released a few months ago, it set Australia on a path to reopening at various stages of vaccination. Now that the country has hit 80 per cent double dose for 16+, experts from Doherty, Burnet and other organisations have released new models on what we can expect a little further down the line. One of the big ones is how schools can remain open - even when positive cases are detected - so long as students are tested regularly via rapid antigen testing. And the new Doherty modelling has possible ways forward for international arrivals, and vulnerable remote Indigenous communities. Also on today's show: * Why is a booster necessary? After having been double vaccinated, even if the antibody level has waned, shouldn't the memory cells of the immune system kick into action?

The largest age group of active COVID cases in Victoria at the moment are kids, under 9 years old. While hard to compare directly, it's a similar story in NSW. Kids are currently unable to be vaccinated, leaving them vulnerable to infection as more COVID circulates through the community - though thankfully, disease is often very mild in children. But on today's Coronacast, overseas experiences tell us that as more and more kids get COVID, we'll see more rare, but serious events popup. Also on today's show: * Are any of the rapid antigen tests approved/suitable for young children? * Do we have another COVID treatment with that new Pfizer anti-viral drug?

The world passed a grim milestone a few days ago: 5 million deaths from COVID-19 and counting. But the reality is, that the actual deaths from the pandemic are much, much higher. Estimating how high is hard, but researchers can use data around excess deaths - ie, an increase beyond the normal number of people who die on average year to year - as a guide. So on today's Coronacast, why reported COVID deaths are probably grossly underestimated. Also on today's show: * Australia's vaccination rate starts to slow * Who are we missing in relation to vaccination?