Bank of Japan Governor Ueda surprisingly stole the show when making his first international English appearance since taking office at the ECB’s annual gathering of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal this week, during a live panel with fellow peer central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey.

Clips from the event of the new face of the Bank of Japan have been going viral, as the soft-spoken academic made light-hearted jokes onstage in an otherwise tense moment in macro policy. Yet, there is far more to take away from the event than just Governor Ueda delighting the crowd.

Weston Nakamura breaks down the new head of the BOJ’s behavior, including what the otherwise outgoing Governor avoids answering, and points to a very telling picture of the overall modern day inter-central bank relationships.

Footage and clips from European Central Bank ECB Forum on Central Banking - Policy Panel

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html

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After being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert.

Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Treasury yields to this day.

Weston then discusses a potential major risk catalyst this week - in which Governor Ueda will be making his first English-speaking public appearance for the international community since becoming Governor of the Bank of Japan in Sintra, Portugal, sharing a stage with Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and ECB President and host Lagarde - accentuating the policy divergences that have re-emerged.

See Weston’s Twitter thread: JPY Price Action Explainer:

https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20

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Following last week's series of rate cuts that were met with tepid market response, China delivers another -10 basis point rate cut to its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates before market open today in-line with its recent measures - only this time, markets pulled sharply back. Is this the start of a new market paradigm?

Weston Nakamura scrutinizes market price action out of China today in search of the answer. Weston also observes what broader major equity indices' recent price behavior looks like absent U.S. market participants upon a U.S. market holiday, and tests his recent themes and findings presented in prior episodes of the Market Depth podcast.

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Off the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks.

In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer.

Weston discusses how the Bank of Japan leaving their Yield Curve Control policy unchanged shows that Governor Ueda may indeed be trapped in the legacy framework, and that it's fellow major central banks who are implementing hawkish policies are are depending on the BOJ to remain in place as the world's final QE anchor.

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After months of wide-scale economic deterioration in China, the People's Bank of China and the central government are finally taking action with three waves of stimulus measures today. The PBOC first makes a surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate before market open on Tuesday, followed by a Bloomberg report of a broad based stimulus package at the end of the trading day, and finally a late-evening announcement of cuts to three standing lending facility rates.

Yet, the overall market response was that of deafening silence. Weston Nakamura walks through each of the stimulus measures, as well as what the anemic market response means, and what to look for next.

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The US equity market's performance, particularly in outperforming tech stocks, is not what it seems. Weston Nakamura lays out his analysis and observations on how the Nasdaq 100 Index is being driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, Weston explains how the ongoing issue of weak market breadth and narrow participation is also a byproduct of the immense foreign equity inflows into Japanese stocks.

This is a differentiated explanation from an angle of global flows into and out of US, Japan and European equity markets - and what to expect next.

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The sustained and incredibly resilient Japan equity rally crashed today - despite broader indices left relatively unscathed (although S&P E-Mini futures also followed Japan indices sharply downward during Asia hours).

Why did this occur, and what does it mean for the world's favorite and best performing market, as well as broader markets globally?

Weston Nakamura breaks down the three sell-catalysts from the day: Chinese exports data that came in weaker than expectations, the -7% plunge in the Turkish lira, and officials in parliament discussing the unwinding of Bank of Japan's 37 trillion yen worth of equity ETF holdings - the latter two being the actual market moving catalysts.

Weston talks about the immediate market risk that the lira may pose if it begins a runaway momentum sell-off that forces Japan retail to liquidate other assets, and also discusses the implications of Bank of Japan selling its equity index ETF holdings.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia shocks markets again, hiking rates for a second consecutive time after having paused once before, and thereby setting precedence for the June FOMC next week, when the Fed is expected to “skip” a rate hike. Weston Nakamura explains the significance of the RBA’s policy behavior to other major central banks.

Weston also shows how and why AUD matters to risk assets, such as the S&P500 index, and explains how the (in)famous AUDJPY carry trade works - noting that AUDJPY is currently re-correlating with the S&P500 price action.

Finally, Weston shares his big revelation of the day with regards to his ongoing working theory of the China policy insider trading - discovering that he may have been incorrect in his reading of the China Property and Development Sector indices’ price action, but in doing so, ultimately provides more clarity on what may be happening in the peculiar market behavior in Chinese equities.

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Following up from Friday's episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura reviews the global equity markets' initial reactions to China's after-hours headline for new stimulus targeted at the Chinese real estate, property and development sectors on Friday evening in Asia. The market impact was significant across the world, with stocks like Caterpillar pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 2% at US close to outperform the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices in immediate reaction, as well as it's Japanese peer Komatsu and other machinery stocks driving the Nikkei 225 index by over 2% to another 33-year high at Asia market open on Monday.

In fact, the only major equity market region and sector that did not participate with an initial upside reaction was China's property and development sector indices - a strange phenomenon, given the direct relevance of the catalyst.

Weston once again examines whether China's policy insiders may be revealing a clearer picture of the policy intent as reflected in market price action and behavior, prior to, and after the stimulus headline.

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Chinese shares in the Hang Seng Index staged a massive recovery rally to end the week in which it temporarily fell into official bear market territory, and uplifted the entire region for a broad based equity market surge during the Asia trading session.

Then, after Asia markets close, Bloomberg reports that China will unveil a new stimulus package to support the systematically critical and increasingly dangerous, debt-ridden property and development sector - which subsequently ignited a strong, risk-on rally across global indices.

Weston Nakamura takes a deep look into the peculiar chronology of the price action in Chinese property and development sector indices - and offers a differentiated take on whether this is indeed the long-awaited turning point for China to proactively stimulate the world's second largest economy, or if this is an empty symbolic gesture.

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