This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

• The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
• Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
• Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
• Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
• The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
• What to make of the banks? (21:14);
• One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
• The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
• Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13);
•  

• Twitter: @InvictusMacro;
• Website: research.com/">Invictus-Research.com.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 23 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he's still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he's watching -- be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

• Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
• Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
• The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
• The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
• Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however... (11:23);
• Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
• When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan -- and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
• Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
• As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
• Background on the guest (27:50);
• Bel Air's clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
• China discussion and why there's no need to invest internationally (34:48);
• Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the llc.com/">Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

This episode was recorded in two parts, with a special segment added on March 14 to address the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Premium subscribers gained access to this added segment the same day it was recorded. Here it has been merged into the same file to create a single episode. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Jake Schurmeier of Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which overlapped with a full monetary policy cycle, and what this may tell us about future Fed policy -- especially in light of the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York.

• The guest spent several years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open markets trading desk, where he was responsible for implementing monetary policy and monitoring the treasury market (3:41);
• In this role he experienced the whole life cycle of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, concluding with the liquidity injections that accompanied the Covid pandemic (5:13);
• Chances are "pretty high" that the Fed reins in quantitative tightening, or QT, in light of the events around Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank of New York (SBNY). A lot of it depends on the uptake of the Bank Term Financing Program, or BTFP, the new lending facility (6:49);
• Can these measures save the business model of regional banks? (10:26);
• The possibility of moral hazard introduced by regulators (12:57);
• Where does this leave interest rate policy? Fifty basis points is probably off the table, but a 25bps raise is certainly in the offing... (14:10)
• In general, what kinds of catalysts will the Fed be looking for to shift from QT to QE? (16:20);
• Was there ever any talk of negative interest rates? Did the Fed ever have discussions about buying stocks (21:00);
• Background on the guest (25:33);
• The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities was in retrospect unnecessary on the scale and duration with which it happened during Covid (28:24);
• For a quasi-government organization, the Fed acts quite quickly. Faster than corporations. A look inside the Fed's decision-making process (32:05);
• Yes, Fed officials and employees are required to disclose their stock transactions (37:29).

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash.

• Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47);
• The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17);
• His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33);
• More on his business cycle theory (10:32);
• Inflationary pressure is real, including from China's reopening (13:37);
• More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17);
• Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20);
• Background on the guest (25:08);
• More on his trades last year (27:13);
• Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37).

• Twitter: @MSzemeszki;
• Covey portfolio.

A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 — almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!

Callie Cox of eToro joins the podcast to discuss her view that the Federal Reserve can engineer a 'soft landing' -- defeating inflation while not tipping the US economy into a recession.

• It's hard to see how the Fed will be able to combat inflation without breaking things in the economy, but this is the guest's view (3:00);
• This view is partly based on the job market (4:06);
• Inflation is the major risk to the 'soft landing' thesis. But there are encouraging signs (6:00);
• Still, there is a chance investors are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates from the Fed (8:08);
• Ultimately, investors are discounting the global economy's strength (9:21);
• Technology has been harder hit than other sectors of the economy, which may bring second-order effects especially locally. But nationally, initial jobless claims are still low (13:57);
• The US consumer has been a particular strong point. No reason for that to stop (15:53);
• Background on the guest (20:12);
• Views on cryptocurrency (24:48);
• The concept of decentralized finance, or DeFi: not just a fool's errand (26:43);
• Does the VIX still matter? Maybe, but there are better options to gauge volatility (31:14).

• Website: eToro.com;
• Corporate Twitter: @eToroUS;
• Personal Twitter: @CallieAbost.

A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 -- almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!

Robert Cote, principal at Cote Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his model of technology investing, how it's different than venture capital, and which areas of new technology that he is most excited about.

• The last 20 years have seen venture capital focus on software companies, almost to the exclusion of anything else. Therein lies the opportunity (1:09);
• Hardware has been overlooked and can become the focus of technology investors again. One example is manufacturing (6:39);
• Use of nanocarbon has created one specific advancement in the area of solar technology (8:50);
• Unfortunately, this technology is not investable through public markets (12:22);
• Another example: textiles, specifically textile recycling (17:08);
• Background on the guest and his investment process (22:56);
• There is transportation-related innovation as well. No, not self-driving cars (36:31);
• Something from the realm of augmented reality: X-ray technology for surgery (38:57):
• Finally, what about crypto currencies? (43:18).

• Website: CoteCapital.com;
• Twitter: @CoteCapital;
• YouTube: @CoteCapital9399.

Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics joins the podcast to discuss his views on the various discrepancies in the global economy -- and how the whole thing may play out.

• US home prices could be due for more declines, based on how housing starts and interest rates have been trending (2:15);
• How much of the strength of the labor market is due to interest rate hikes not having taken full effect yet? (4:09);
• Expecting a 'mild recession' may be as naive as anticipating a 'soft landing' (8:44);
• Traditional leading indicators are out of synch, with manufacturing employment dropping precipitously but the services sector going from strength to strength (13:30);
• The Fed may have already overdone it with interest rate hikes (14:57);
• The 'best case' scenario may be akin to what happened in 1995-96 (18:15);
• Background on the guest (22:23);
• What to (possibly) expect from Fed policy the rest of 2023 (27:29);
• Watch Japan's monetary policy as well (34:17);
• What about cryptocurrencies as a systemic risk? (39:08);

• Website: Apricitas.io;
• Twitter: @JosephPolitano.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!

Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors.

• China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23);
• There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08);
• What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00)
• Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54);
• Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20);
• What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31);
• Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02);
• Background on the guest (37:49);
• China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36);
• After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18).

• Website: GWeiss.com;
• Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he's expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year.

• Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18);
• Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56);
• Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50);
• The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably -- and not due to Fed policy (12:18);
• There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47);
• The 'wealth destruction effect' from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35);
• One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59);
• The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41);
• The 'higher for longer' Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27);
• Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37).

• Substack: Ironsides Macroeconomics;
• Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.

• There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
• The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
• The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
• The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
• With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05);
• Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
• One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
• Background on the guest (22:56);
• Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
• The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).

• Website: MillerResource.com;
• LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky;
• Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).