Military types need not wait until mass movements of troops to know a conflict is coming. We examine a raft of subtle and not-so-subtle market moves that would precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. France’s quiet volte face on the extent of NATO and the European Union will reshape European security (12:04). And how scrapyards are becoming efficient, lucrative disassembly lines (19:41).

For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, try a free 30-day digital subscription by going to www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer