In this week’s episode Blasko and Mike revisit one of the first ever episodes and discuss how their predictions for 2017 and Paul Resnikoff’s article:
http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/2016/12/19/music-industry-anti-predictions/
Wireless headphones won’t take over the world (yet). Apple won’t close its iTunes download store (yet). Streaming music won’t reach 250 million paying subscribers. (Currently at 100 million.)
*According to IFPI’s Global Music Report, streaming now makes up the majority (roughly 60%) of digital revenue and for the first time, digital revenues make up 50% of the share of total recorded music industry revenues. Rough estimates show that if 10% of the global population eventually subscribes to a music streaming service, the music industry’s worldwide recorded music revenues will far exceed its best year ever in 1999. In fact, a recent Goldman Sachs report predicted that streaming will hit $34bn in revenue in 2030, as part of a healthy $41bn industry.
The Grammys will not be spectacular. Independent artists make up 55% of nominations in all non-producer and non-spoken word categories, according to tabulations from A2IM. In 43 of the 81 categories, the majority of nominees were on independent labels. Independent music is doing better than ever with a record global market share of 37.32% according Billboard. Last year more than two-thirds of Grammy nominations were independent releases. Independent music’s authenticity, vitality, and genre diversity ensure its keystone role in the recording industry and American culture.
‘Spotify screws artists!’ will finally die.
The music industry won’t change YouTube. (artists don’t want another losing war against technology (right or wrong). Which means YouTube is all about exposure and micro-penny payments, in 2017 and beyond.)
Vinyl won’t disappoint.* Sales reports from most Coalition Of Independent Music Stores show Black Friday sales increases ranged from +5% to an astounding +53%, with an average increase of 13.8%. Only two stores reported decreases from their 2016 sales, while a couple reported flat sales. Less comprehensive data from Small Business Saturday was also positive, ranging from flat to +19% over 2016 sales.
Streaming will grow; the number of streaming companies won’t.
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