Make up your mind - China unhappy about everything.
Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.
What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?
Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!
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Warm Up
- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022
- China lockdowns - scaring citizens
- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023
- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up
- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid
- Markets convulsing....
- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed
Market Update
-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.
- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.
-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.
- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)
- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...
2022 Exit Plan
- Investors have good deal of capital losses
- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions
- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023
- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023
- 2023 may be just as volatile as Fed not done
CPI Report
- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3%
Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)
- Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.
- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar
- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)
CPI REPORT REACTION
CPI Report Reaction
One Musk
- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -
- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)
- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)
- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)
CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP
Marcus Galliford
David Norman
Paul Retzlaff
Simon Lutzenberger
Michael Devietro
Matheau Phillips
Rusty Shacklefordd
DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.
- Emails went out to all of you
- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.
Not Pretty
Fixed (Broken) Income Returns
$600 = 1099K
- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS
- Supposed to be for business transactions
--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly
- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant
- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....
-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds
2023 - Collection Social Security?
- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...