The Nifty50 on the monthly time frame has been forming a higher high, and higher low pattern that indicates that the trend of the benchmark index from a long-term perspective remains strongly bullish.
Coming down to the weekly chart, we can see that the prices have been facing rejection near the 16,000 mark for about 4 weeks.
From a price action point of view, the index has been witnessing fatigue on the shorter time frame, and on the daily chart, we can see a range-bound movement for the past 7 sessions between 15,915 and 15,673.
On the option, open interest front (8th July 2021 expiry), the highest open interest is seen in the 16000 Call options, and on the put side, the highest open interest is seen in the 15400 contracts.
Thus, we can expect the broader range of the index to be 16000-15400.
On the indicator front, the stochastic plotted on the weekly and the daily time frame can be seen forming a bearish crossover near the overbought level that indicates that the bulls might be losing their hold on the trend.
Going ahead, the key support level to watch out for is 15,670 on the downside, and if the index breaches below this level then we expect further downside towards the 15450 mark (3-week low), and 15,100 (multiple touchpoint level and the 20 weeks SMA).
To sum it all up, the Nifty seems to be feeling fatigued as it approaches the 16,000 mark and might witness a slight correction. The 15670 levels in the coming sessions will act as a make-or-break level if the prices breach below this level we can expect the prices to move lower and test the 15450 and 15100 eventually.
Our bearish view will be negated if the 15915 mark is breached on the upside, and in that case, we can expect the index to move higher and test the 16000-16100 mark.