Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War.

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In 2018, South Sudan's main warring parties signed a peace deal which today should have already concluded with national elections. However, mid-2022, after years of implementation delays and stalled politics, South Sudan's power-sharing government announced a two-year extension of its term in office and pushed elections until December 2024. Even with the extended timeline, South Sudan's roadmap to elections looks steep and littered with pitfalls. The current failure to implement the peace agreement and an almost non-existing voting infrastructure have raised doubts about whether South Sudan can be ready for elections any time soon. With violence raging across much of the country, many also question whether South Sudan can hold elections safely. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s political malaise and the country's fraught road to elections. They first address the implications of South Sudan's latest political crisis after President Salva Kiir relieved Angelina Teny, the wife of First Vice President Riek Machar, of her position as defence minister. They then identify critical steps that must be taken to ensure the viability of the upcoming election, including a credible new constitution. They also discuss why surveys show South Sudanese overwhelmingly want elections even though they also predict such elections will cause more violence. They then also discuss what approaches could help foster more stability in South Sudan’s political system in the long-run, and whether Kiir or Machar would ever consider retirement. 

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Crisis Group's South Sudan country page. 

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The Russian-owned Wagner Group continues to grow its footprint in parts of Africa, with a presence in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere. As a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin, the group ostensibly provides combat services but has also garnered a reputation for deft media tactics that have bolstered Russia's visibility on the continent. Several African countries now partner closely with Wagner for military support and training. But the war in Ukraine, and Wagner's role in it, has increased scrutiny on the paramilitary group and heightened concerns in Western capitals about its and Moscow's ambitions in Africa.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Julia Steers, VICE News’ correspondent in Nairobi, about her investigations into Wagner's activities in Africa and Ukraine. They talk about the group's origins and activities on the continent and what Russia and its African partners hope to gain from Wagner’s presence. They also discuss why Western governments are worried about Wagner's growing influence, and why the company is often seen as a useful partner for governments that have asked them to deploy. 

For more, check out Crisis Group's analysis on Russia's influence and Wagner's activities in Central African Republic and in Mali.

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On 18-19 February, the African Union (AU) held its annual heads of state summit in the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This event marked the culmination of a year of active diplomatic engagements across the African continent against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and its global fallout. The two-day summit was highly anticipated. The continent is facing an array of outside actors jostling for influence as global divisions mount, a multitude of conflicts and crises internally, and an insecure financial future, with much of its funding coming from external backers such as the European Union and their shifting priorities. In order to better tackle the challenges facing the continent in the years ahead, many observers are now calling for fast-tracking the institutional reforms of the AU.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior adviser to the AU, about the highlights of the 2023 AU Summit, the union’s overall progress and the challenges facing it. They discuss the AU's bid for permanent African seats on the UN Security Council and its possible accession to the G20. They also dive into the AU's position against coups, the crisis in the Great Lakes region and its mediating role in the conflict in Ethiopia. They touch on the organisation’s original ambition, its focus on peace and security, as well as the structural impediments it faces, such as member state sovereignty, decision-making difficulties and external funding. Finally, they discuss ways in which the AU can adapt to better fulfil its mandate.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Africa Program page, and our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2023.

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This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Abdi Latif Dahir, East Africa correspondent for The New York Times, about the political landscape of several East African countries. They talk about President Museveni's long-lasting hold on power in Uganda and what to make of his son and potential successor, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, whose provocative statements on social media have sparked widespread attention and scrutiny. They take stock of Kenya's state of affairs, the Ruto presidency, and how borrowing from China has been burdening the country and its citizens. They also discuss Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan's early tenure as well as the future of Somalia. Finally, they touch on the regional response to the war in Ukraine and why some countries in Eastern Africa have been reluctant to take sides in the conflict. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out Abdi’s work inThe New York Times, including his recent article: “president-son-muhoozi.html">A Wild Card’: Son of Uganda’s President Jostles to Succeed His Father”, as well as our program page for the Horn of Africa.

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The Sudanese military and a coalition of major civilian actors signed a framework agreement on 5 December 2022, paving a path to a new civilian government more than a year after the military seized full power in an October 2021 coup. While the new deal has raised hopes that Sudan's long political impasse could be nearing an end, it has also received its fair share of criticism. Many viewed the negotiations as too exclusive, and the deal thus far excludes former rebels and others. Without broader support, many have argued that a new government could ultimately lack legitimacy.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Guma Kunda Komey, a former peace adviser to Sudan's last prime minister, about the politics of the negotiations over forming a new civilian government in Sudan. They talk about the effects of the military coup in late 2021 that saw the military take full control of the country and subsequent efforts to get the country’s political transition back on track. They discuss the December 2022 framework agreement, how it was reached, as well as the criticisms that have arisen around the deal, the challenges facing its implementation and its perceived lack of inclusiveness. They also discuss the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, whether it was a good deal, and what it would take to strike a peace deal with Sudan's remaining rebel movements.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our latest statement “A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan’s Next Government” and our Sudan country page.

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Over the past few months, Somali government forces have consolidated gains against Al-Shabaab in a large-scale offensive in central regions. The offensive was initiated by clans rising up against the group, which the government in turn sought to nurture and expand. While the government troops have made advances against the militant group, consolidating those gains and delivering on authorities’ promises to local communities will remain a significant challenge. Prospects for engagement with the insurgents has also taken a back seat amid the current fighting, even as Al-Shabaab has in the past shown to be a flexible and resilient actor. In the background, a festering humanitarian situation remains dire as a fifth failed rainy season has brought Somalia closer to famine. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Eastern Africa, about the latest developments regarding the offensive against Al-Shabaab, following recent fieldwork. After reviewing the circumstances leading up to the offensive, they discuss the government's strategy to involve local militias in the fight and the challenges this could present. They also assess how Al-Shabaab has responded and whether the federal government is any closer to exploring potential political dialogue with the jihadist group. Finally, they take a look at the status of federal-regional government reconciliation efforts amid upcoming political issues.

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Somalia country page and our report from last year, Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

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In August, the White House unveiled a Strategy-Toward-Sub-Saharan-Africa-FINAL.pdf">new strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa focused on promoting open societies, democracy and security, while increasing U.S. efforts to help Africa combat Covid-19 and adapt to climate change. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains active in the crises in the Horn of Africa, including the peace process in Ethiopia, resolving the political impasse in Sudan and countering Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Yet, America's role has also shifted amid a changing world, especially as Washington increasingly engages with other regional powers, including in the Middle East, about Horn of Africa affairs.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Molly Phee, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, about how the Biden administration envisions partnership with African countries and Africa's role on the global stage. They talk about the administration's approach to great-power competition in relation to Africa, as well as the increasing role of regional powers, including from the Gulf. They then discuss the Ethiopia peace process, the role of Eritrea, and U.S. efforts to broker a new political deal in Sudan. They also examine whether the U.S. supports eventual political talks with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, what to do about South Sudan, U.S.-Kenya relations, and the continued and controversial use of U.S. sanctions as a diplomatic lever. Phee then previews the upcoming U.S.-Africa summit next week in Washington. 

For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Africa program page. 

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Last week, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi held a meeting with Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta and other African leaders in Angola to agree on a ceasefire in eastern DR Congo. The situation there has been deteriorating rapidly in recent weeks, with militants from the M23 group making significant headway against Congolese forces, threatening to overrun the regional capital of Goma and prompting the East African Community (EAC) to deploy a force to the region. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and members of the M23 were notably absent from the recent meeting in Luanda, raising concerns that any agreement without their involvement might not be sustainable in the long run.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Crisis Group consultant Richard Moncrieff about the flare-up in violence in eastern Congo and how the conflict could develop. They talk about the M23’s recent advances in eastern Congo, Rwanda’s role in the conflict and the ongoing rivalry between Kinshasa and Kigali. They also discuss Kenya’s increased diplomatic and military involvement in the DR Congo. Finally, they address the declining popularity of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DR Congo and how African leadership has stepped up to address regional security challenges.

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in the DR Congo, make sure to check out our DR Congo country page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

On 2 November, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces reached an agreement to cease hostilities and end almost two years of bloody war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The truce came after the Ethiopian army, together with Eritrean troops and forces from the Amhara region, which borders Tigray, made rapid advances into Tigray over recent weeks. It raises hopes that peace in Tigray might be within reach and that the region’s humanitarian crisis – amplified by a federal blockade on aid throughout much of the war – can finally be addressed. However, peace talks did not include Eritrea, despite its involvement in the war, and the deal includes no provisions about what will happen to the Eritrean forces in Tigray. It does involve other major concessions for the Tigrayans, who agreed to fully disarm within a month.  

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa director, to talk about the cessation of hostilities and its implications. They talk about the events leading to the truce, Ethiopia’s recent offensive in the Tigray region, Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict and how all sides are likely to view and respond to the agreement. They address the role of the African Union and its envoy, former Nigerian President Olesugun Obasanjo, in brokering the agreement. They also talk about the influence of external actors in Ethiopia and how the support of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye for the Ethiopian government shaped battlefield dynamics. They ask what went wrong with a transition in Ethiopia that had generated enormous optimism in its early years, and what the coming years might bring for politics in the Horn of Africa at a moment of considerable flux. 

For more on the situation in Ethiopia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ethiopia country page.

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