Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). – Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.