This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee, distinguished French diplomat and former ambassador to both the UN and the U.S., to look at the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the war enters its second month and Russia launches a major offensive in Ukraine’s east and south, they discuss the dilemmas Western governments face in supporting Ukraine, while avoiding risks of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. They walk through different aspects of Western policy, from the provision of weapons to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia to diplomacy aimed at ending the war. They also reflect back on past decades of deteriorating relations between the West and Russia. They map out the war’s implications for Europe’s security architecture and transatlantic relations, and what it means for French President Emmanuel Macron’s vision of European strategic autonomy. They also discuss the French election and what a Le Pen presidency would bring for France and its place in Europe and the world. 

For more on the Ukraine War, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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