The dates for the Gujarat assembly elections are out – polls will be held in two phases, on December 1 and 5, and the results will be declared on December 8. The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1995, for 27 years. But there has been little talk of anti-incumbency, with most analysts ,and an opinion poll, predicting another comfortable victory for the BJP. However, unlike in the past, this time with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the mix, many constituencies are expected to see a three-cornered contest, instead of a two-way contest between the BJP and the Congress. Which party is likely to lose ground due to the AAP factor – the Congress or the BJP? Is the splash made by AAP merely a social media phenomenon or has it made an impact on the ground as well? And what will be the significance of this election for the BJP, looking ahead to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?