On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?". We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next! -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is. -- Referenced In The Show: Rosenberg Research https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754 Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low? (11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market? (21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like? (29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers? (37:26) Circle Ad (38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened? (44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation (52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery? (1:02:28) The US Outlook (1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.