For the past few weeks, military analysts have been expecting a Ukrainian offensive in the conflict with Russia, one that might the tables on the Russians, break past the front lines and bring the war home to the aggressors. That offensive might still happen, but a more immediate problem emerged Tuesday—a collapsed dam releasing a torrent of water, endangering civilians, military, home and infrastructure, and perhaps even threatening a nuclear plant.

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine has faltered, it's become clear just how far Putin's regime will go to continue it. As Ukraine prepares to take the fight to them, the war might just be coming to a turning point. But right now, chaos reigns, so what just happened and what comes next?

GUEST: Balkan Devlen, Superforecaster at Good Judgement Inc. senior fellow and director of the transatlantic program and the McDonald Laurier Institute.

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